【航运】出货需求偏强现货稳步上行，02增仓上行升水12合约

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's outlook is "oscillation" [4] Core Views - The spot market has a good loading preference, and the freight rate center continues to rise. The 02 contract is at a premium to the 12 contract, with a significant increase in the 02 contract, rising trading volume, and increasing positions. The far - month contracts are oscillating, and the 12 contract has a slight decline [1] - The freight rates of some shipping companies in the spot market have adjusted. The geopolitical situation may complicate the second - stage cease - fire negotiations, and there are different stances in the macro - environment. The trading logic is that the shipping company's loading rate remains strong until the end of the year, and the market is optimistic about the implementation of the MSK's price increase plan. There are still expectations for price increases in January, and the 02 contract benefits from early delivery. It is advisable to pay attention to the 02 - 04 positive spread [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Spot Market Freight Rates - GEMINI: The HPL - SPOT NE2/AE1 freight rate in the third week of December dropped to $2235/FEU; the MSK's fourth - week price was $2300/FEU and remained unchanged today [2] - OCEAN: The CMA's freight rate in the first half of December dropped to $2345/FEU, a decrease of $300, the same as the OOCL's $2880/FEU in the first half of December. In the second half, GMA and OOCL are at $2745/FEU and $2530 - 2630/FEU respectively, and the offline price is $2450 - 2600/FEU [2] - PA&MSC: The YML updated the freight rate from December 21 - 31 to $1575/TEU and $2650/FEU, a decrease of $200/FEU compared to last week's announced price, but an increase of $650 compared to the first - half price in December [2] Geopolitical Situation - A Hamas source said they would negotiate on disarmament but would not be forced to give up their guns, asking Israel to withdraw from Gaza and mediators to ensure that Israel does not resume military operations in Gaza. The second - stage cease - fire negotiations may become complicated [2] Macro - environment - The French President expressed a tough stance after returning from a visit to China, criticizing the large trade surplus between China and the EU, while Germany had a positive attitude towards China [3] Trading Logic - By the end of the year, the shipping company's loading rate remains strong. The PA's container goods support its second - half price increase plan. The OCEAN's second - half freight rate is set at $2500/FEU, and the GEMINI's is set at $2300 - 2400/FEU, with the freight rate center rising by about $200/FEU compared to the first half [3] - The market is more optimistic about the implementation of MSK's plan to raise the price to $3500/FEU. MSK has announced a PSS for the Mediterranean route. Attention should be paid to whether it will push up the Nordic PSS to boost sentiment and benefit the near - month contracts [3] - Due to less delayed capacity in the 52nd week and the long - term contract negotiation period, there are still expectations for price increases in January and mid - January. The market demand before the Spring Festival in January is strong, and the 02 contract benefits from early delivery. There is a differentiation in the logic between near - and far - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 02 - 04 positive spread [3] Contract Performance - As of the close, the 02 contract closed at 1665.2 points, up 3.41%, with an increase of 669 in open interest; the 04 contract closed at 1080.7 points, up 0.6%, with a decrease of 159 in open interest; the 06 contract closed at 1225.6 points, up 0.9%; the 12 contract closed slightly lower at 1655 points, down 0.4%, with a decrease of 114 in open interest [1]