棕油下挫、豆二劲升

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil market is bearish due to high inventory and low exports, while the soybean market is bullish but with limited upside potential. The hog market is weak due to high supply, and the egg market is pressured by high egg - laying hen inventory. The sugar market is weak due to high supply, and the cotton market is supported by high sales rates but with increasing inventory [1][2][7][8][11][12][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil is accelerating its decline due to the strongly bearish MPOB monthly supply - demand report. Domestic soybeans (Dou Er) are rising strongly due to unconfirmed news of import soybean clearance, but the upside may be limited. Hog price rebounds are blocked by increased supply, and the market may enter a low - level operation again [1] II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil: Continuous Decline - The palm oil 2605 contract is continuously falling, pressured by the bearish MPOB supply - demand monthly report. In November, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 13.04% to 284 tons, much higher than expected; production decreased by 5.3% to 194 tons, lower than expected; exports decreased by 28.13% to 121 tons, lower than expected. The technical indicators are weak, and the strategy is to go short with a light position on rallies [2][5] (2) Dou Er and Soybean Meal: Sharp Rise - The Dou Er 2601 contract is rising sharply, and the soybean meal January contract is also rising. The unconfirmed news of extended import soybean clearance has boosted the market sentiment. The USDA's December soybean supply - demand report has little impact on the soybean market. The strategy for Dou Er is to go long short - term with a stop - loss, and for soybean meal 2605, hold short positions [7] (3) Hogs: Rebound Blocked, Weak and Volatile - The hog 2603 contract's rebound is blocked, and it turns weak again. Although terminal consumption has increased, high pig inventory, high planned slaughter volume of large pig farms, and pig diseases have increased supply and suppressed pig prices. The strategy is to close long positions and trade short - term [8] (4) Eggs: Forward Contracts are Weak - The egg 2603 contract is weakly declining, pressured by high egg - laying hen inventory. Although market demand has increased at the end of the year, the latest data shows a decline in old hen slaughter, and the reduction of production capacity is still uncertain. The strategy is to go short with a light position [11] (5) Sugar: Declining in Volatility - The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract is declining in a weak operation, affected by the supply pressure of new sugar listing. The seasonal supply pressure of sugar is still large, and downstream demand is average. The strategy is to go short with a light position, with a resistance at 5242 [12][14] (6) Cotton: Closing Up in Volatility - The cotton 2605 contract is rising in volatility and running at a high level. The high sales rate of cotton in Xinjiang supports the price, but commercial inventory is increasing. The strategy is to go long with a light position, with a stop - loss reference to the 10 - day moving average [15]