天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20251210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report [1][4][11] 2. Core Views - Carbonate Lithium: The carbonate lithium futures market is expected to be strong in the short - term. With a large - scale battery purchase agreement in the North American market, there is a strong demand expectation. If inventory continues to decline, the futures price may rise further. It's recommended to buy on dips [1] - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. The establishment of a storage platform indicates future production cuts, but the downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [4][7] - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures market is expected to remain weak. The supply - demand pattern of the industry is weak, with high inventory and limited restocking due to downstream production cut expectations [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - Market Trend: The main 2605 contract of carbonate lithium futures rose 3.43% to 95,980 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [1] - Core Logic: Influenced by a large - scale battery purchase agreement in the North American market, there is a strong demand expectation. The inventory data to be released tomorrow afternoon may affect the price [1] - Technical Analysis: The overall position increased significantly, and it is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a strong red ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 92,160 yuan/ton [1] - Strategy Suggestion: Buy on dips, and refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [1] Polysilicon - Market Trend: The main 2605 contract of polysilicon futures fell 0.03% to 54,600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [4] - Core Logic: Affected by the establishment of a joint platform, the price opened higher. The establishment of the storage platform means future production cuts, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is still accumulating [4] - Technical Analysis: The overall position decreased slightly, and it is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a weak green ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 54,835 yuan/ton [7] - Strategy Suggestion: It may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [7] Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures fell 1.43% to 8,255 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [11] - Core Logic: Affected by the production cut expectations of polysilicon and organic silicon, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and the inventory is at a three - year high with continuous accumulation for three weeks [11] - Technical Analysis: The overall position increased slightly, and it is controlled by bears. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, blue band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a weak green ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 8,950 yuan/ton [11] - Strategy Suggestion: It is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to the influence of downstream polysilicon policies and short - term emotional fluctuations. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [11]