橡胶周报：橡胶受泰缅冲突再起情绪刺激，但冲突依然远离主产区对供应实际影响有限-20251210

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others. It suggests that geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers of the market in December. While some products show short - term positive trends, others face supply - demand imbalances and potential risks. Overall, it advises different trading strategies for each product based on their fundamentals and technical analysis [3][5]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: Supply - demand and macro drivers have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term supply surplus is the main trend, but the market still trades based on supply - demand changes. Macro factors are short - term positive, and geopolitical factors are likely to be the main drivers in December. Short - term bullish but difficult to trade due to geopolitical risks; mid - term, look for shorting opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4][5]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it decreased slightly with reduced positions, and the short - term structure remains unchanged. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [5]. Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply decreased due to increased maintenance after a significant profit decline, and inventory reduction supported the rebound. However, further upward movement requires support from the cost side (crude oil). Mid - term, the port inventory is at a five - year high, and there is a high probability of inventory reaching a new high in February if the demand remains weak after the New Year [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it corrected with increased positions, and the structure became unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [9]. Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the short - term. Tire demand is unlikely to increase significantly, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing, and there is no obvious upward or downward driver. Consider it as an oscillating market [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with reduced positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The core factor is the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene is low recently, leading to short - term improvement in supply - demand and reduced pressure. However, there is still a risk of liquid chemical inventory over - filling in the mid - term due to high supply and inventory [12]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased with increased positions, and the hourly - level remains in an oscillating state. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12]. PX - Logic: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. However, the supply - demand of PX is still relatively strong among energy - chemical products. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side (crude oil) [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it continued to correct with reduced positions, but the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 6700. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 6700, and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [17][18]. PTA - Logic: The overseas spread has weakened significantly, and the anti - seasonal US aromatics blending oil logic has ended, reducing the upward driving force. PTA continues to reduce inventory, and the short - term supply - demand pressure is not large. Pay attention to the cost side [18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it tested the short - term support with reduced positions, and the short - term upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support for the 01 contract is at 4620. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss at 4620 (01 contract), and look for secondary entry opportunities for non - entered long positions after the correction ends [18]. PP - Logic: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. The short - term downward structure remains, and the short - term pressure above is at 6220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [21]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable but weak. The port inventory has been decreasing, but the rate of decrease slowed down last week, and the inventory is still at a high level. The upward space is limited, and the previous upward driving force has ended. No longer consider short - term long positions [23][25]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the short - term is in an oscillation. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term structure is unclear. The 05 contract is weaker than the 01 contract, indicating high inventory pressure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [25]. PVC - Logic: There are few future maintenance plans, and high production is maintained. However, the profit has declined, and there are more expectations of production cuts. The demand side (downstream real estate) is not optimistic, and the social inventory is at a high level. The supply - demand has no upward reversal driver, but the valuation is low, so there is no value in chasing short positions [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 4445. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The previous domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, and new production capacity has been put into operation, increasing the supply pressure. Downstream polyester demand is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The supply - demand driving force is downward. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. Pay attention to the short - term pressure above at 3720. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [30]. Plastic - Logic: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is still weak without a reversal driver. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is at 6670. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [32]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downstream glass production lines have cut production, suppressing the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward driving force remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions is reduced [35]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it decreased with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above has moved down to 1120. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously with a stop - profit at 1120 [35]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Supply production is at a high level, and the weekly production has increased year - on - year, reaching a new high. It is the off - season for traditional downstream demand, and the demand from alumina has weakened due to reduced production. The inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks, reaching a new historical high year - on - year. The supply - demand driving force is downward without a reversal, but there is no space to chase short - positions before an obvious rebound [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it rebounded with reduced positions, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above is at 2135. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [37].