Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week (December 1st - 5th), the oil and fat sector showed a divergent trend. Palm oil and soybean oil rebounded in a volatile manner, while rapeseed oil trended weakly in a volatile way. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to supply - demand pressure; soybean oil will also fluctuate in the short - term with uncertainties; rapeseed oil will trend weakly in the short - term, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed may relieve the supply shortage [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil production decreased, with MPOA showing a 4.38% month - on - month decrease in production from November 1st - 30th. Export was weak, with ITS data showing a 19.7% month - on - month decline in November exports, AmSpec showing a 15.89% decrease, and SGS showing a 39.21% decrease. November inventory may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high. Indian refiners cancelled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders, and there is an expectation of resuming palm oil procurement, causing palm oil to rise in a volatile manner [4] Soybean Oil - China's import of US soybeans slowed down as US soybean prices are higher than Brazilian soybeans. As of Friday, 462,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China, and the confirmed sales since the end of October reached 2.7 million tons, accounting for 22.5% of the 12 million - ton procurement target. The US EIA indicated that the use of soybean oil for biofuel production in September 2025 was 1.053 billion pounds, higher than that in August, strengthening the market's expectation of continuous increase in future soybean oil use [4] 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: This week, 4 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, with all ship dates spanning from December to January, and no new cancellations. Due to mainly rigid domestic demand, the palm oil purchase volume is low. - Soybean oil: As of December 5th, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 205.58 tons, with an operating rate of 56.55%, a 6.59% month - on - month decrease but still at a high level. The soybean oil production was 390,000 tons, a 27,500 - ton month - on - month decrease. The domestic soybean port inventory is at a high level, and the supply is loose. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 5th, the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. Pay attention to the crushing situation in December after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds [10] Demand - Palm oil: As of December 5th, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 700 tons, a 7,900 - ton month - on - month decrease, with mainly rigid domestic demand. - Soybean oil: As of December 5th, the weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 136,900 tons, a 61,500 - ton month - on - month increase, but the demand is still weak. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 5th, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 220 tons, a 10 - ton month - on - month decrease, and it is at a low level compared to the same period [7] Inventory - Palm oil: As of December 5th, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 683,700 tons, a 30,200 - ton month - on - month increase, a 4.62% increase. - Soybean oil: As of December 5th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.163 million tons, a 15,800 - ton month - on - month decrease, a 1.34% decrease, but the inventory still has pressure. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 347,000 tons, a 18,200 - ton month - on - month decrease, a 4.98% decrease. The rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, and the supply is tight [8] Cost and Profit - As of December 5th, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was $1,049/ton; the import cost price was 8,864 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease [9] 3. Conclusion Palm Oil - Recently, the precipitation in Southeast Asia has increased, and Malaysia and Indonesia have experienced floods. Malaysian palm oil production has decreased, but Indonesia said the floods have not had a significant impact on production. Exports are weak, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation. Indonesia has lowered the export tariff in December to increase competitiveness. Pay attention to the MPOB report. It will fluctuate in the short - term [12] Soybean Oil - China's procurement of US soybeans has slowed down. Domestically, the soybean arrival volume has increased significantly, the soybean supply is loose, the oil mill operating rate has decreased but is still at a high level, the soybean crushing volume is still high, the soybean oil production has decreased month - on - month, the soybean oil inventory has decreased but still has pressure, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the domestic inventory reduction rhythm, and the US biodiesel policy is still uncertain. It will fluctuate in the short - term [12] Rapeseed Oil - China still maintains the anti - dumping policy against Canada, and the China - Canada relationship has not progressed. The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, the oil mills are shut down, the rapeseed oil production is 0, and the inventory continues to decline. The fundamentals of rapeseed oil have changed little. The arrival of Australian rapeseeds may relieve the tight supply of rapeseed oil. Pay attention to the crushing of Australian rapeseeds. It will trend weakly in a volatile way in the short - term [12] 4. Spot Prices - As of December 5th, the spot price of Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil was 8,570 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton month - on - month increase. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,740 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan/ton month - on - month increase. - The spot price of Nantong Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9,870 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease [14] 5. Malaysian Palm Oil Data Production - In October 2025, affected by the increase in working days and favorable weather, the Malaysian palm oil production was 2.044 million tons, a 11.02% month - on - month increase. The production in the Malay Peninsula was 1.1171 million tons, a 6.56% month - on - month increase; the production in Sarawak was 481,200 tons, a 14.65% month - on - month increase; the production in Sabah was 445,600 tons, a 19.50% month - on - month increase [16] Inventory - In October, the inventory was 2.46 million tons, a 4.44% month - on - month increase, and it is at a high level compared to the same period [17] Export - In October, the Malaysian palm oil export volume was 1.6929 million tons, an 18.58% month - on - month increase [20] Consumption - The domestic consumption in Malaysia was 282,400 tons, a 15.58% month - on - month decrease, falling back to the normal range [21] 6. Indian Palm Oil Import - In October, India imported 602,300 tons of palm oil, a 226,600 - ton month - on - month decrease, a 27% decrease, and it is at a low level compared to the same period [24] 7. Domestic Palm Oil Data Import and Inventory - As of December 5th, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 683,700 tons, a 30,200 - ton month - on - month increase, a 4.62% increase. In October, the domestic palm oil import volume was 220,000 tons, a 70,000 - ton month - on - month increase, and the import volume rebounded [27] Consumption - In October, the palm oil consumption was 228,300 tons, a 23,200 - ton month - on - month decrease, and it is at a low level compared to the same period [30] Import Profit - As of December 5th, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 66 yuan/ton, a 143 - yuan/ton month - on - month increase [33] 8. Domestic Soybean Oil Data - As of December 5th, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 56.55%, the soybean oil production was 390,000 tons, a 27,500 - ton month - on - month decrease, and it is still at a high level compared to the same period. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.163 million tons, a 15,800 - ton month - on - month decrease, but the inventory still has pressure [35][36] 9. Domestic Rapeseed Oil Data - As of December 5th, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 347,000 tons, a 18,200 - ton month - on - month decrease, the inventory continued to decline, and it is at a low level compared to the same period. The first shipment of Australian rapeseeds has arrived. Pay attention to the customs clearance and subsequent crushing of Australian rapeseeds [38]
油脂周度行情观察-20251210
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-12-10 14:05