甲醇日评20251210：短期注意回调压力-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 01 contract has limited upward space, and it has been falling continuously after last Tuesday, currently dropping below the 2100 mark. In the short term, attention should be paid to the callback pressure due to high inventory, average MTO profits leading to weak restocking motivation of downstream enterprises, and the decline in coal prices weakening cost support [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Methanol futures prices: MA01 decreased from 2089 yuan/ton to 2066 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.10%; MA05 decreased from 2177 yuan/ton to 2143 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.56%; MA09 decreased from 2179 yuan/ton to 2143 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.65% [1] - Spot prices in different regions: Prices in most regions decreased slightly, such as a 0.24% decline in Taicang, a 0.11% decline in Shandong. Only Hubei increased by 0.90% [1] - Coal and natural gas prices: Coal prices in some areas decreased, like a 1.21% decline in Datong Q5500. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 3.2 Profit Changes - Methanol production profits: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 3.35%, while natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged [1] - Downstream profits: Northwest MTO profit increased by 6.29%, while East China MTO profit decreased by 0.94%. Profits of some downstream products like MTBE decreased, while those of acetic acid and formaldehyde increased [1] 3.3 Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak oscillation, opening at 2082 yuan/ton, closing at 2066 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, with 787,400 lots traded and 723,600 lots held, showing a decrease in volume and positions [1] - Foreign information: Multiple methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and as of December 7, the quantity of methanol shipments loaded in the Middle - Eastern country in December reached around 350,000 tons [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold the 01 short put option until expiration (viewpoint score: 0) [1]