债市基本面高频数据跟踪：2025年12月第1周：成本下移，钢价普跌

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Economic growth shows cost reduction and widespread decline in steel prices, with production - related indicators such as power plant daily consumption, blast furnace operation rate, tire operation rate, and loom operation rate showing different trends; demand - side data for real estate, automobiles, steel, cement, glass, and shipping also vary [1][4]. - Inflation is characterized by the agricultural product price index being higher than in recent years, with different price trends for various agricultural products; PPI shows weak oil prices, and different trends for copper and aluminum prices [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Cost Reduction and Widespread Decline in Steel Prices 1.1 Production: Seasonal Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - 1.1.1 Production End: Seasonal Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - On December 9, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 79.7 tons, a 2.3% increase from December 2; on December 2, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 190.8 tons, a 3.9% increase from November 25. Heating demand in the north boosts power consumption, but demand in non - power industries has limited growth [4][12]. - 1.1.2 Production End: Overall Decline in Blast Furnace Operation Rate - On December 5, the national blast furnace operation rate was 80.1%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from November 28; the capacity utilization rate was 87.1%, also a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease. However, the blast furnace operation rate of Tangshan steel mills increased by 2.4 percentage points. Heavy - pollution response measures and weakening demand in the off - season led to the decline [4][17]. - 1.1.3 Production End: Slight Recovery in Tire Operation Rate - On December 4, the operation rate of all - steel truck tires was 63.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from November 27; the operation rate of semi - steel car tires was 70.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point increase. The loom operation rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region continued to decline [4][20]. 1.2 Demand: Cost Reduction and Widespread Decline in Steel Prices - 1.2.1 Demand End: Improved Monthly - on - Monthly New Home Sales in 30 Cities - From December 1 - 9, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 256,000 square meters, a 42.0% increase from November, but a decline compared to the same period in previous years. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all decreased year - on - year [4][25]. - 1.2.2 Demand End: Weak Growth in Automobile Retail Sales - In December, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year. The low growth was due to high sales in December last year and the weakening impact of the trade - in policy [4][29]. - 1.2.3 Demand End: Widespread Decline in Steel Prices - On December 9, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 2.4%, 2.1%, 2.7%, and 0.5% respectively compared to December 2. Steel inventory reduction accelerated [4][34]. - 1.2.4 Demand End: Moderate Increase in Cement Prices - On December 9, the national cement price index increased by 0.4% compared to December 2, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions performing better. However, price increases were difficult to implement due to high inventory in some areas. The year - on - year decline in cement prices narrowed [4][35]. - 1.2.5 Demand End: Glass Prices Reached a New Low in the Second Half of the Year - On December 9, the active glass futures contract price was 985 yuan/ton, a 5.2% decrease from December 2. Weak demand and high inventory were the main reasons [4][40]. - 1.2.6 Demand End: Container Shipping Freight Index Turned Down Again - On December 5, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% and the SCFI index decreased by 0.4% compared to November 28. Weak market demand and expanding container ship capacity dragged down freight rates [4][44]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years - 2.1.1 Pork Prices Rose and Then Fell - On December 9, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.6 yuan/kg, a 0.1% decrease from December 2. The pressure came from the concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. The month - on - month decline widened [4][49]. - 2.1.2 Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years - On December 9, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.1% compared to December 2. Different agricultural products had different price trends. The year - on - year and month - on - month increases in the agricultural product price index were 6.0% and 2.4% respectively [4][55]. 2.2 PPI: Weak Oil Prices - 2.2.1 Oil Prices Weakened - On December 9, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $62.8 and $58.3 per barrel respectively, a 2.2% and 0.7% decrease from December 2. Oversupply expectations and weakening geopolitical support led to the decline [4][58]. - 2.2.2 Copper Prices Rose and Aluminum Prices Fell - On December 9, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.0% and decreased by 0.7% respectively compared to December 2. The domestic commodity index showed different trends in month - on - month changes [4][63]. - 2.2.3 Most Industrial Product Prices Declined Month - on - Month - Since December, most industrial product prices declined month - on - month, with coking coal and coke having the largest declines. The year - on - year decline in most industrial product prices narrowed, except for cold - rolled sheet and glass [4][65].