白糖日报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest phase, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out and is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8]. - Domestically, sugar mills are gradually starting production in the new season, increasing supply and sales pressure. However, considering the tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and the relatively high production cost, the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage, and sell put options at a low level for options trading [9][10] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: On December 10, 2025, the closing prices of SR05, SR01, and SR09 were 5,245, 5,328, and 5,225 respectively, with declines of 20, 15, and 22, and decline rates of 0.38%, 0.28%, and 0.42% respectively. The trading volumes were 4,616, 121,672, and 127,493, with changes of 506, -32,633, and 24,852 respectively. The open interests were 32,159, 241,501, and 349,420, with changes of 1,518, -18,964, and 24,848 respectively [3]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of sugar in different regions were as follows: 5,480 in Liuzhou, 5,340 in Kunming, 5,740 in Wuhan, 5,430 in Nanning, 5,650 in Rizhao, and 5,960 in Xi'an. The price changes were -25, -5, -70, 0, -50, and 0 respectively [3]. - Monthly Spread: The SR05 - SR01 spread was -103, down 7; the SR09 - SR05 spread was 20, up 2; the SR09 - SR01 spread was -83, down 5 [3]. - Import Profit: The quota - free price of Brazilian sugar was 3,998, and the out - of - quota price was 5,077, with a spread of 403 compared to Liuzhou, 573 compared to Rizhao, and 251 compared to the futures market. The quota - free price of Thai sugar was 4,046, and the out - of - quota price was 5,141, with a spread of 339 compared to Liuzhou, 509 compared to Rizhao, and 187 compared to the futures market [3] 3.2 Market Outlook - Important Information: Green Pool estimates that Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 6% year - on - year to 10.7 million tons, but may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons in the 2026/27 season. On December 10, the domestic sugar futures continued to decline, and the spot prices in the main producing areas were basically stable with average trading volume. As of December 10, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 7 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of about 537,000 tons, 39,000 tons less than the same period last year. In Yunnan, 26 sugar mills had started production in the 25/26 season, 9 more than the same period last year, with an expected daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 99,600 tons, 43,100 tons more than the same period last year [5][7]. - Logical Analysis: Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest phase, and the sugar - making ratio has decreased significantly. The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is 39.179 million tons, 800,000 tons more than the same period last year. The international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out. Domestically, sugar mills are starting production, increasing supply, but the tightened imports and high production costs support the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - Trading Strategies: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the supply pressure in Brazil is easing, and the domestic price has limited downward space. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, it is recommended to sell put options at a low level [9][10] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly inventory, monthly production, Liuzhou's sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, sugar's monthly basis, and Zhengzhou sugar's monthly spread [12][13][19]