棉花、棉纱日报-20251210

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Daily Report dated December 10, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13780, up 40, with a trading volume of 177,854 hands (an increase of 19801) and an open interest of 474,318 (a decrease of 4249) [2] - CF05 contract closed at 13760, up 35, with a trading volume of 116,043 hands (an increase of 19584) and an open interest of 496,555 (an increase of 27804) [2] - CF09 contract closed at 13900, up 40, with a trading volume of 2,112 hands (a decrease of 243) and an open interest of 15,702 (an increase of 594) [2] - CY01 contract closed at 19840, up 45, with a trading volume of 237 hands (a decrease of 107) and an open interest of 1320 (a decrease of 104) [2] - CY05 contract closed at 19965, up 15, with a trading volume of 8 hands (unchanged) and an open interest of 68 (a decrease of 2) [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20085, unchanged, with no trading volume and an open interest of 9 (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15004 yuan/ton, down 5; CY IndexC32S was 20800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Cot A was 73.70 cents/pound, compared to the previous 73.95; FCY IndexC33S was 21059 yuan/ton, up 6 [2] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 73.32 cents/pound, down 0.18; Indian S - 6 was 55800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton (compared to the previous 70); pure polyester yarn T32S was 11050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Viscose staple fiber was 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was 20, up 5; 5 - 9 month spread was - 140, down 5; 9 - 1 month spread was 120, unchanged [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was - 125, up 30; 5 - 9 month spread was - 120, up 15; 9 - 1 month spread was 245, down 45 [2] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6060, up 5; CY05 - CF05 was 6205, down 20; CY09 - CF09 was 6185, down 40 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: domestic - foreign cotton spread (1% tariff) was 1895, down 12; domestic - foreign cotton spread (sliding tariff) was 962, unchanged; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 259, down 6 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - According to the USDA's latest December global cotton production and sales forecast, total production was slightly reduced to 2608 million tons, total consumption was slightly reduced to 2582 million tons, and ending stocks increased by 1 million tons to 1654 million tons [4] - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) reported that as of November 30, 2025, for the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, compared with last month's assessment, production was increased by 8 million tons, imports were increased by 9 million tons, exports were increased by 2 million tons, and domestic demand was decreased by 9 million tons, resulting in an increase of 23 million tons in ending stocks. Compared with the previous year, beginning stocks increased by 36 million tons, production decreased by 5 million tons, imports increased by 15 million tons, domestic demand decreased by 32 million tons, exports remained flat, and ending stocks increased by 79 million tons [4] - The average temperature in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas (92.9% of production) was 44.31°F, 8.87°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.84 inches, 0.72 inches higher than the same period last year. In the Texas cotton - producing area, the average temperature was 48.22°F, 9.5°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.52 inches, 0.51 inches higher than the same period last year. The temperature in the U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas is decreasing and rainfall is stable. The La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter is increasing the impact, and it is expected that the subsequent temperature will be lower than the historical average. The cotton - producing areas in the U.S. South are expected to be warmer and drier in winter, which may lead to drought during the sowing season [5] Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, with the large - scale listing of new cotton in November, there may be some selling - hedging pressure. On the supply side, although this year's production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, as the peak season ends, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with a large amount of new cotton on the market, the new - year production is expected to increase significantly but the increase may be less than expected. The recent order performance on the demand side is average, but the previous negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate strongly [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of U.S. cotton will mostly be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is average. The combed high - count yarn has a good sales volume, while the inventory of other varieties has slightly increased. Traders and downstream fabric mills still mainly make rigid purchases, and some fabric mills have started year - end replenishment for next year's peak season. The prices were basically stable yesterday. After the recent price increase by spinning mills, there is a certain degree of acceptance from the downstream, but the overall cash - flow situation is still not optimistic, and the operating rate in the inland area has decreased. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream replenishment [9] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remains light. Manufacturers generally believe that there will be no significant improvement in orders in the short term, so they mainly focus on digesting inventory, with the willingness to sell as the main driving force. The sales of high - count and high - density varieties for spring and summer use in previous years are ordinary this year, and fabric mills have a strong willingness to accept orders [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On November 24, 2025, for CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 00 EBE, the increase/decrease rate was 71.0%, IV was 6.7%, Delta was 0.7924, Gamma was 0.0012, Vega was 8.9763, Theta was - 2.5396, the theoretical leverage was 74.2350, and the actual leverage was 58.8238 [11] - For CF601P13000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 7.00, the increase/decrease rate was - 75.9%, IV was 11.4%, Delta was - 0.0470, Gamma was 200003, Vega was 3.0820, Theta was - 12967, the theoretical leverage was 1,940.7143, and the actual leverage was 912136 [11] - For CF601P12400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 2.00, the increase/decrease rate was - 83.3%, IV was 17.3%, Delta was - 0.0106, Gamma was 0.0001, Vega was 0.8840, Theta was - 0.5394, the theoretical leverage was 6,7925000, and the actual leverage was 72,0005 [11] Volatility and Strategy - Yesterday, the 10 - day HV of cotton was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. Today, the trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased. The option strategy is to wait and see [12][13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][18][22][23]