生猪周报：供应压力好转，价格小幅反弹-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the current pressure on the live pig market remains significant, with prices under pressure. Although there has been a slight rebound in prices recently, due to factors such as increased planned slaughter by large - scale enterprises this month, high slaughter volumes from ordinary farmers, and high inventory in secondary fattening, along with high slaughter weights, the market pressure is expected to continue. In the futures market, there is also downward pressure [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategy - Comprehensive Analysis: This week, live pig prices showed a slight oscillation, with most regions seeing price increases. Large - scale enterprises reduced their slaughter volumes, while ordinary farmers increased their active slaughter after price rebounds. Secondary fattening remained stable. Slaughter weights increased, and market demand improved, with an increase in slaughter volume and frozen product inventory. However, considering the increased planned slaughter of large - scale enterprises this month, high slaughter volumes from ordinary farmers, and high inventory in secondary fattening, the market pressure is still significant [5]. - Futures Analysis: The futures market showed downward pressure this week, reflecting concerns about supply pressure within the month. If spot prices do not drop significantly, the futures market may rebound, but currently, spot pressure is obvious, so futures prices are still under pressure [6]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, adopt a downward - biased approach; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see strategy; for options, use a short straddle strategy [7]. 3.2 Data Charts & Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Pig Prices - This week, live pig prices across the country oscillated slightly. Some regions saw price drops, while others had increases. The market slaughter pressure decreased significantly, and prices showed a phased rebound. Large - scale enterprises reduced their slaughter volumes, while ordinary farmers were more active in slaughtering. Secondary fattening was mainly in a wait - and - see state [12]. 3.2.2 Slaughter and Consumption Changes - Slaughter Situation: The overall slaughter pressure improved this week. Large - scale enterprises reduced their slaughter volumes, while ordinary farmers were more active in slaughtering. Secondary fattening was mainly in a wait - and - see state. Slaughter weights continued to increase, and the supply pressure of large - weight pigs increased. Although large - scale enterprises reduced their slaughter this week, it is expected that the overall slaughter pressure will increase in the future [14]. - Consumption Situation: Pig demand continued to improve this week. Slaughter volume increased, frozen product inventory increased slightly, apparent demand increased, and the fresh - meat sales rate increased, indicating an improvement in overall demand [14]. 3.2.3 Breeding Profits As of the week ending December 5, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 167.69 yuan per head, a decrease of 19.71 yuan per head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 259.39 yuan per head, a decrease of 10.57 yuan per head from last week. Pig prices remained low, and breeding profits continued to decline [23]. 3.2.4 Sow and Piglet Prices - Piglets: The price of 7 - kg piglets remained unchanged from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets decreased by 2 yuan per head. The enthusiasm of farmers for replenishing piglets was average [30]. - Sows: The sow price decreased by 1 yuan per head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs continued to decline, and the enthusiasm for culling sows increased [30]. 3.2.5 Breeding Sow Inventory According to Yongyi's data, the breeding sow inventory decreased slightly in October. According to Ganglian's data, the inventory decreased by 0.38% in November. Overall, the breeding sow inventory has decreased [33].