资产配置日报：股债新阶段-20251210

Market Overview - On December 10, the stock market experienced a decline while the bond market saw gains, continuing the seesaw effect observed recently[1] - The total trading volume of the Wande All A index was 1.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 126.1 billion yuan compared to December 9[1] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.42% and 0.48%, respectively, with net outflow of southbound funds amounting to 1.018 billion HKD[2] Equity Market Insights - The Wande All A index rebounded after touching a support level around 6230, indicating a strong support[1] - The current market is in the second phase of a recovery trend, with potential resistance at the October high point[1] - Consumer sectors are highlighted as market beneficiaries due to low-value discovery and policy dynamics, with the food and beverage sector showing a return of -8.05% year-to-date[2] Bond Market Dynamics - Recent market concerns have been addressed, with expectations for a "loose monetary policy" remaining intact despite a shift in policy tone[3] - The November CPI and PPI data showed year-on-year changes of 0.7% and -2.2%, respectively, indicating a moderate recovery in inflation[3] - Fund institutions, previously cautious, have resumed buying in the bond market, with notable performance in 30-year and 10-year government bonds[4] Liquidity and Fund Flows - The People's Bank of China shifted from net withdrawal to net injection, with a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan on December 10[4] - Despite low interest rates, net inflows for funds and brokerages have not significantly increased, remaining below the quarterly average[5] - The stability of fund liabilities and the presence of incremental capital will be crucial for a potential year-end rally in the bond market[5] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected adjustments in monetary policy could impact market conditions[6] - Changes in liquidity levels may also lead to unforeseen market fluctuations[6] - Fiscal policy adjustments in response to economic slowdowns could further influence market dynamics[6]