华宝期货碳酸锂晨报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][2] - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is expected to be range - bound, with a continued atmosphere of long - short game, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in supply and demand [1][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Product - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The finished product price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures LC2605 rose and then fell, closing at 92,800 yuan/ton, a 1.23% decline. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton, narrowing by 2,040 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading and positions of the main contract declined slightly, and the long - short game continued but with reduced heat. The term structure shows "near - weak and far - strong" differentiation [1] - On the supply side, the resumption of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is slow, and salt lake lithium extraction is restricted, with limited short - term supply increase. As of December 9, the lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index was 1,165 US dollars/ton, and the production and theoretical delivery profits of purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica are negative, which may support the bottom of the lithium carbonate futures price [2] - On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The weekly output of power batteries increased by 0.7%. It is predicted that the lithium iron phosphate operating rate in December will remain above 70%. The market expects the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy to continue, and the overall inventory continues to decline, with downstream inventory rising slightly and terminal replenishment mainly for rigid demand [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has accelerated the lithium mine approval process, but the resumption of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is still lagging, and the actual supply increase is limited. The positions of the main contract declined slightly, and the long - short game continued [3]