煤焦：蒙煤高通关预期强化，盘面弱势震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high customs clearance expectation of Mongolian coal is strengthened, and the coking coal and coke prices lack upward driving force, and are expected to operate under pressure. Currently, the main contract of coking coal futures has switched to the 2605 contract, and the price has not stabilized yet, so operations need to be cautious [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Market Situation - This week, in a weak market atmosphere, the pressure test at the Ceke Port of Mongolian coal was completed beyond expectations, intensifying the market's pessimistic sentiment, and the center of the coking coal and coke futures prices moved down again. The spot market is generally weak, with the price of imported Mongolian coal leading the decline and domestic coal prices following suit. Steel mills have completed the first round of price cuts for coke, and there is still an expectation of further cuts [2] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: It is expected that the supply of coking coal will maintain a relatively stable pattern. The production of domestic coking coal mines is relatively limitedly boosted by coal supply guarantee, and it is difficult for the coking coal output to increase significantly in the off - season of downstream demand. The import of coking coal remains at a high level, continuing to suppress domestic coal prices. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal increased to 192,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 67,700 tons. On Monday of this week, the Ceke Port conducted a customs clearance pressure test, with 2,126 vehicles cleared on the test day, exceeding the expected 2,000 vehicles. Previously, the daily customs clearance at the Ceke Port was about 1,000 vehicles. The high customs clearance expectation intensified the pessimistic sentiment. In addition, the overall arrival volume of seaborne coal last week was 9.5863 million tons, reaching a new high since November last year [2] - Demand: The pressure of the seasonal off - season will be further manifested. The profitability rate of steel mills is about 35%, and the blast furnace hot metal production is still in a slow decline trend, which continuously suppresses the rigid demand for raw materials. Since December, steel mills have begun to transfer the pressure to the raw material end. The key variable of demand lies in the inventory replenishment rhythm before the Spring Festival. If downstream enterprises start to replenish raw material inventories intensively in mid - to late December, the demand side may receive short - term support, but the intensity of inventory replenishment will still be restricted by finished product sales and profit conditions, and the sustainability is expected to be weak [2]