广发证券晨会精选-20251211

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector, particularly in regions like Liaoning and Hubei, where the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and inventory digestion strategies such as housing vouchers and trade-in models [3] - New home sales have shown a month-on-month improvement, but second-hand home purchase trends are declining, with new home transactions in 50 cities increasing by 9.6% month-on-month, while year-on-year comparisons show a decrease of 35% in November [3] - The report indicates a significant drop in land sales, with a total of 975.5 billion yuan in land transfer fees across 300 cities, reflecting a 13.8% month-on-month decline and a 52% year-on-year decrease [3] Real Estate Market Analysis - The new home supply remains high, but short-term prices are expected to decline again, with a 23.9% decrease in new home launches week-on-week, despite maintaining high levels [3] - The average sales-to-supply ratio has dropped to 0.65x, indicating slower transaction growth compared to the increasing supply [3] - The A-share real estate sector continues to face downward pressure, particularly due to credit issues faced by companies like Vanke, which have affected weaker credit firms [3] Transaction Trends - The report notes that the transaction prices for second-hand homes have decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, with a cumulative decline of 16.2% since the beginning of the year [3] - The number of visits to second-hand homes has decreased by 1.1% week-on-week, with the conversion rate reaching a new low for the fourth quarter [3] - The report suggests that the market is experiencing a significant inventory accumulation, with the potential for demand to remain below expectations [3]