Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side competition order optimization boosts inflation recovery, while the demand - side may determine the continuity of inflation. After inflation has reasonably recovered, the bond market will focus more on whether inflation recovery is sustainable, which should be based on not affecting the real economic growth rate. Besides capacity management in key industries, continuous improvement on the demand - side is needed to support inflation continuity [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 November CPI Situation - The year - on - year increase of November CPI continued to expand, with food prices being the main driving factor. Core CPI increase was basically the same as the previous month, and the decline of energy prices widened. Due to rainfall and cooling in some areas affecting the production and storage of fresh vegetables, the fresh vegetable price increased by 7.2% month - on - month in November and turned to a 14.5% year - on - year increase, which was the main driving factor for the rise in food prices. Core CPI was in a stable trend, with the year - on - year increase basically unchanged from the previous month [3]. 3.2 PPI Situation - Supply - side competition order optimization promoted the continued improvement of PPI month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline was slightly larger than the previous month. The capacity governance of key industries continued to advance, the market competition order was continuously optimized, and the price decline of industrial products in some key industries narrowed continuously. However, as of October, housing prices still faced downward pressure, which restricted the further improvement of PPI [3]. 3.3 November Rent - related CPI Situation - In November, both the month - on - month and year - on - year declines of rent - related CPI slightly expanded. The supply and demand of urban housing may still be in a balanced state, but expectation factors still restricted the recovery of the real estate market's prosperity [3]. 3.4 Economic Growth and Inflation Continuity - Since China's economy advanced steadily in the first three quarters of this year, the pressure to achieve this year's growth target is not great. In the first half of next year, it is necessary to pay attention to the feedback of real growth indicators such as industrial added value and real GDP growth rate on inflation recovery [3].
11月通胀数据点评：需求端或决定通胀延续性
Bank of China Securities·2025-12-10 23:45