朝闻国盛:11月CPI涨幅扩大,PPI降幅小幅走阔
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-12-11 00:02

Group 1: Macro Insights - The core viewpoint indicates that the November CPI year-on-year growth has expanded, primarily due to a base effect and an unusual seasonal increase in fresh vegetable prices, with core CPI maintaining over 1% growth for three consecutive months [2] - The PPI has shown a month-on-month increase for the second consecutive month, driven by "anti-involution," the non-ferrous industry, and downstream consumer goods sectors [2] - The report highlights several bright spots in optional consumption, influenced by policies such as trade-in programs, leading to significant price increases in household appliances and transportation tools, with household appliance prices maintaining a year-on-year growth of over 4% since August [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Insights - The November inflation data shows an increase in CPI, which rose by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024, while PPI's year-on-year decline slightly widened to -2.2% [3] - The rise in prices is significantly influenced by seasonal factors, particularly the prices of food items, especially vegetables, which have been impacted by extreme weather and seasonal shifts [3] - The report notes that gold prices continue to provide strong support for overall price increases, contributing to an unexpected rise in inflation [3] Group 3: Energy Sector Insights - The report discusses the results of the 2026 renewable energy bidding across 19 provinces, highlighting a significant regional disparity, with East and North China showing better electricity prices compared to the West and South [4] - Wind power prices are noted to be superior to solar power prices, and the market-oriented bidding for renewable energy is expected to guide the expansion pace in oversupplied regions while stabilizing benefits in areas with good consumption [4] - The report recommends focusing on green power operators with advantageous resource locations, high project development efficiency, and low financing costs, particularly in wind power, suggesting companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [4]