综合晨报：美联储宣布降息25BP，中国通胀分化-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term gold price remains in a volatile pattern, silver's upward trend is expected to slow down, and attention should be paid to correction risks. [13][14] - Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index): The US dollar index is expected to weaken. [19] - US Stock Index Futures: US stocks are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the subsequent release of economic data. [21] - Stock Index Futures: Allocate long positions in stock indices evenly. [24] - Treasury Bond Futures: It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on dips. [28] - Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal): If the South American soybean production is worry - free, the May contract should be considered for shorting on rallies. Also, continue to pay attention to China's purchase progress of US soybeans and the dynamics of state reserves. [30] - Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil): After the MPOB report is released, the price of palm oil futures drops significantly and then stabilizes and rebounds. It is expected that the price may be supported to some extent. After waiting for the demand to pick up and the signal of production reduction, long positions in the 05 contract can be considered. [33] - Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil): It is still recommended to view the steel price from a volatile perspective. [36] - Black Metals (Iron Ore): The overall iron ore price is expected to continue its weak trend. The fundamental situation is seasonally weak. [37] - Black Metals (Steam Coal): The steam coal price is expected to continue to fall until mid - to - late January. [38] - Agricultural Products (Cotton): Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - level and changes in downstream orders. [43] - Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina): It is recommended to wait and see. [46] - Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): The spot price of polysilicon is expected to be difficult to fall further. In futures, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips after the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. In options, pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money put options. [49] - Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): The fundamental situation of industrial silicon is not optimistic. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rallies after the price rebounds. [52] - Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): In the short term, the futures price may be under pressure. In the medium - and long - term, the strategy of going long on corrections can be adopted. [53] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for macro - level guidance. In the medium - term, the impact of Indonesia's contraction on nickel ore needs to be evaluated. [56] - Non - ferrous Metals (Lead): In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading, arbitrage trading, and domestic - foreign trading. [57] - Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc): In terms of single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage trading, the long - spread position can be held. For domestic - foreign trading, wait and see. [59] - Non - ferrous Metals (Tin): The tin price is expected to continue its high - level volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on corrections, and beware of the risk of price decline. [61] - Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil): It will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. [64] - Energy Chemicals (Styrene): If there is a new round of panic selling in pure benzene and styrene due to factors such as full storage, it may be an opportunity to lightly go long on far - month contracts on dips. [65] - Energy Chemicals (LLDPE): It is expected that the futures price still has room to fall, and it is recommended to hold short positions. [68] - Energy Chemicals (Methanol): There is not much contradiction in the fundamentals currently, and the long - spread strategy is more cost - effective. [70] - Energy Chemicals (Asphalt): The asphalt market as a whole continues to be weak, and wait for more winter storage policies to be released. [72] - Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash): In the medium - term, a bearish view should be taken on soda ash, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. [74] - Energy Chemicals (Float Glass): The fundamental situation of float glass is still in excess. In the medium - term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be adopted. [75] - Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate): It is not recommended to chase the high. Short - selling should wait for the signal that the spot price fails to meet expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [76] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. However, the room for interest rate cuts in 2026 is limited, and the Fed's balance sheet has not expanded rapidly, so the short - term positive impact on the gold price is limited. [13] - The US dollar index weakens due to the Fed's interest rate cut and internal differences, which increases market risk appetite. [17][18] - The US stock market may face reduced support from interest rate cut trading in the future, and market games will increase. However, it is expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger at the end of the year. [20][21] - China's inflation in November shows a K - shaped divergence, with CPI rising and PPI falling. More incremental policies are needed to boost prices in the future. [23] - The inflation in the domestic bond market is expected to rise, but the increase is limited. After a sharp decline, the odds of going long on TL have increased significantly. [27] - The supply and demand of various commodities are different. For example, the supply of steam coal is excessive and the price is expected to fall; the supply of palm oil is under pressure, but there may be support in the future; the supply of polysilicon is facing challenges, but the price may be difficult to fall further. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate target range to 3.5% - 3.75% and will start buying Treasury bills on December 12. The gold price fluctuated and closed higher, but the short - term positive impact is limited. The internal differences of the Fed are increasing, and the subsequent policy game will increase. [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points with internal differences, leading to an increase in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar. [17][18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and started buying short - term Treasury bonds. Powell's view on the employment market is more cautious. The future room for interest rate cuts is reduced, and the support for the stock market from interest rate cut trading may decrease. [20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026. China's inflation in November shows a K - shaped divergence, and more policies are needed to boost prices. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices. [22][23][24] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's CPI and PPI in November show a K - shaped divergence. The central bank carried out 1898 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1105 billion yuan. After a sharp decline, the odds of going long on TL have increased significantly. [25][27][28] Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US soybean crushing volume in October was much higher than that in September and the same period last year. There are many market news, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal has widened significantly. If the South American soybean production is worry - free, the May contract should be considered for shorting on rallies. [29][30] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10 decreased by 10.31% month - on - month. In November, the inventory increased by 13.04% month - on - month, reaching a high level in recent years. After the MPOB report is released, the price of palm oil futures drops significantly and then stabilizes and rebounds. [31][32][33] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail and wholesale volume of passenger cars in December 1 - 7 decreased compared with the same period last year. The steel price has rebounded, mainly due to the expectation of real - estate policies. It is still recommended to view the steel price from a volatile perspective. [34][35][36] 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - MinRes' Lamb Creek project is under construction. The iron ore price is expected to continue its weak trend. The fundamental situation is seasonally weak, and the port inventory is still at a high level. [37] 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the North Port market on December 10 was weak. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the demand was weak. It is expected that the price will continue to fall until mid - to - late January. [38] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of December 2, Brazil's cotton planting progress was 5.3%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA's December report slightly adjusted the supply - demand balance sheets of US and global cotton. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile, and it is cautiously optimistic in the long term. [39][41][43] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia. The alumina price in the spot market declined, and the new production capacity is about to be put into operation, causing the futures price to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [44][45][46] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The shareholder list of the polysilicon platform company was disclosed. The polysilicon industry inventory continues to accumulate, but the spot price may be difficult to fall further. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in futures and selling out - of - the - money put options in options. [47][48][49] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A silicon enterprise's industrial silicon device has potential safety hazards. The fundamental situation of industrial silicon is not optimistic. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rallies after the price rebounds. [50][51][52] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Samsung SDI signed a battery supply agreement. The short - term futures price may be under pressure, and the strategy of going long on corrections can be adopted in the medium - and long - term. [53] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia issued a new regulation on fines for illegal mining in forest areas. The nickel - iron production in China and Indonesia in November remained at a high level. In the short term, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, waiting for macro - level guidance. [54][55][56] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount. The LME inventory decreased, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased marginally. The lead price is expected to be mainly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see in all aspects. [57] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Chile's zinc concentrate exports from January to October decreased by 17.8% year - on - year, and Peru's exports in September decreased by 22% month - on - month. The zinc price is expected to face some upper - level pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and domestic - foreign trading, and hold long - spread positions for arbitrage trading. [58][59] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin 0 - 3 spread was at a premium. The LME inventory increased, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The tin market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue its high - level volatile trend. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on corrections and beware of risks. [60][61] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, but the gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The oil price fluctuated and rose. It will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device was put into operation. The pure benzene and styrene markets are in a consolidation state. If there is a new round of panic selling in pure benzene and styrene due to factors such as full storage, it may be an opportunity to lightly go long on far - month contracts on dips. [65] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises increased. The futures price is expected to fall further, and it is recommended to hold short positions. [66][67][68] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased. The short - term methanol futures price is expected to remain volatile. The long - spread strategy is more cost - effective. [69][70] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased. The asphalt market is weak, and wait for more winter storage policies to be released. [71][72] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - A soda ash device was reduced in production. The soda ash futures price is under pressure due to factors such as cost reduction and increased production capacity. In the medium - term, a bearish view should be taken, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. [73][74] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The float glass market is in excess supply, and in the medium - term, the strategy of shorting on rallies should be adopted. [75] 2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - CMA CGM adjusted the D&D fees. The container freight rate 02 contract has rebounded, but there is a lack of effective positive drivers. It is not recommended to chase the high, and short - selling should wait for the signal that the spot price fails to meet expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [76]