MPOB报告偏利空，油脂关注下方技术支撑有效性

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MPOB report is bearish for the oil market, and the short - term trend of domestic oils may be weak with oscillations. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as South American weather and Argentine tax policies, and is expected to be weak with oscillations. The corn market is under pressure from increased spot supply and is expected to oscillate. The pig market has sufficient inventory, and the futures price is expected to be weak with oscillations. The natural rubber market is affected by geopolitical news, and the sustainability of the price increase is questionable, with an expected oscillatory trend. The synthetic rubber market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. The cotton market is strong in the near - term but faces resistance above. The sugar market is expected to be weak with oscillations in the medium - to - long term. The pulp market is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend. The double - gum paper market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The log market is affected by warehouse receipts and is expected to be in a loose pattern with opportunities for reverse spreads or long positions in the far - month contracts [1][5][6][8][10][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils - Viewpoint: The MPOB report is bearish, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - Logic: Due to concerns about US soybean export demand and the expected high yield of South American soybeans, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Affected by the bearish MPOB report, domestic oils oscillated and diverged, with palm oil being weak. The US dollar strengthened due to better - than - expected employment data, and crude oil prices continued to weaken. The USDA report maintained the US soybean production and demand expectations, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continued. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The export decline of Malaysian palm oil in November exceeded expectations, and the inventory was higher than expected. However, it is currently the palm oil production - reduction season, and the probability of inventory reduction in palm oil - producing areas is high. The consumption of palm oil by Indonesian biodiesel has increased year - on - year, and the Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low. The import of Indian vegetable oil may decline seasonally. The domestic rapeseed supply is tight recently, and the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, but the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage [1][5]. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be weak with oscillations. Affected by the bearish MPOB report, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, and the expected increase in Australian rapeseed imports, domestic oils may be weak with oscillations in the near - term [2][5]. 2. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: Low prices attract buyers, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the previous low. - Logic: The December supply - demand report slightly increased the global ending inventory, with no adjustment to US and South American soybean data, having a slightly bearish impact. China's plan to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans will be completed by the end of February next year. There is a risk of drought in Argentina, and the rainy weather in central Brazil may slow down the growth of early - season corn and soybeans. Argentina will lower the soybean export tax from 26% to 24% and the soybean by - product export tax from 24.5% to 22.5%. In the short - term, the auction of imported soybeans is imminent, and the transaction price and rate should be noted. The market is worried about changes in customs import policies, and the spot price is stable, with the basis rising passively. The soybean inventory is high, and the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal is slow. In the medium - term, China's procurement progress for imported soybeans in January is nearly 80%, mainly by the state reserve, and commercial procurement is absent due to crushing losses. The expected import of Australian rapeseed suppresses the performance of rapeseed meal. The inventory of soybean meal in downstream feed and breeding enterprises has increased year - on - year. In the long - term, whether the South American weather is normal determines the price trend and amplitude of soybean meal [6]. - Outlook: US soybeans are expected to be weak with oscillations, and Dalian soybean meal is expected to oscillate. As the expectation of interest rate cuts in December has been fully priced in, the South American weather has not yet become a topic of speculation, and China's procurement progress is slow, US soybeans are expected to be weak with oscillations. The soybean import volume has decreased month - on - month, but the seasonal de - stocking of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills is slow. The auction of state - reserve soybeans increases the market supply pressure, and customs policies may provide some support to prices [7]. 3. Corn and Starch - Viewpoint: The increase in spot supply puts pressure on prices, and the futures market oscillates. - Logic: Domestic corn prices are weak. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China has increased significantly, and prices are mainly falling. Ports are affected by the decline in the night - session futures, and prices are generally adjusted downwards. Since last Friday night, due to news of regulatory reserve auctions and the futures reaching a high - level integer mark, market sentiment has turned, and the futures market has declined. Affected by the futures market sentiment, the hoarding sentiment of upstream suppliers has loosened. In the Northeast, the willingness of grass - roots traders and drying towers to sell for profit has increased, and the hoarding sentiment of farmers may cool slightly, resulting in a phased increase in market - circulated grain sources and an expected slight acceleration of the grain - selling process. However, considering the low inventory of grain - using enterprises, the demand for reserve - warehouse rotation, and the continuous demand for loading at northern ports, prices are unlikely to drop significantly. In North China, as the futures decline, enterprises' wait - and - see sentiment has increased. In the southern sales area, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated in the next two weeks, and there is a demand for profit - taking and position - shifting in the futures market. In the short - term, a phased correction is expected, but the core indicators supporting the strong price have not changed fundamentally, and the adjustment range depends on the subsequent inventory - accumulation speed. Before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, prices are likely to oscillate [8][9]. - Outlook: Oscillation. Short - term wait - and - see [8][9]. 4. Pigs - Viewpoint: The inventory is sufficient, and the futures price of pigs has declined. - Logic: Recently, the number of epidemics has increased month - on - month, and the proportion of low - weight pig slaughter has increased month - on - month, but the impact is still limited year - on - year. In the short - term, the completion rate of large - scale pig farms' slaughter in November was slightly lower than 100%, with a small amount of inventory postponed. In December, the planned slaughter volume shows an increase according to different data sources. In the medium - term, the national sow production capacity was still at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of new - born piglets increased continuously from January to October. According to the breeding cycle, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be in excess until April 2026. In the long - term, the sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the number of sows in November decreased month - on - month. The self - breeding and self - raising of pigs has been in continuous loss, and under the dual drive of "policy + loss", sow production reduction is expected to continue. The number of new - born piglets in November decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure of commercial pigs is expected to ease after May 2026. The pig - to - meat price ratio has increased month - on - month, the average slaughter weight has continued to increase, and the downstream pickling demand has yet to be fully launched. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs will remain high in the first quarter of 2026, and the cycle is still in a downward phase. In the long - term, the national sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the number of new - born piglets in November also decreased month - on - month. Under the dual drive of "anti - involution + loss", the production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the supply pressure of pigs is expected to gradually weaken in the second half of 2026 [10]. - Outlook: Weak with oscillations. In the near - term, pigs are still in the period of high - capacity realization, and with the pressure of large - pig slaughter at the end of the year, prices will operate in a low - level range. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture guides enterprises to reduce production, and the continuous loss of breeding profits is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The number of sows and piglets decreased month - on - month in November, and the far - month contract prices are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. The pig industry presents a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to the opportunity of reverse - spread strategies [10]. 5. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: Geopolitical news speculation, and the sustainability is questionable. - Logic: The natural rubber market was strong yesterday, with an intraday increase of nearly 2%. It is mainly due to the price reaching the bottom of the range, affected by the news of the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and driven by the overall rebound of commodities. However, the market is still in a stage without strong driving forces and maintains an oscillatory pattern. The sustainability of this geopolitical speculation is questionable. Recently, downstream buying has been light, and there is insufficient support for the spot market, with a bearish market sentiment. Fundamentally, the overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the firm raw - material prices support the futures market to some extent, but there is still a risk of decline. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still acceptable after the price decline. In the short - term, without a strong expected difference and macro - driving factors, the rubber price is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillatory trend [12]. - Outlook: With limited fundamental variables, the rubber price is expected to continue to oscillate, and it is difficult to have a trend - like market [12]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The futures market maintains an oscillatory pattern. - Logic: BR followed the upward trend of natural rubber yesterday and has maintained an oscillatory range recently. Considering the relatively stable trading volume of butadiene and the limited downward space of natural rubber prices, the BR futures market is unlikely to decline significantly. The price of butadiene oscillated upward last week, and after the price fell to the annual low, some buyers entered the market, and the trading atmosphere improved. With the increase in price, the enthusiasm of sellers to sell increased, and some high - price transactions were blocked [13]. - Outlook: There is no upward driving force, and supported by natural rubber, the futures market maintains an oscillatory range [13]. 7. Cotton - Viewpoint: The near - month contract is strong, but there is significant resistance above. - Logic: On the supply side, the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase by 600,000 - 800,000 tons to 7.3 - 7.5 million tons, and the inspection speed this year is faster than in previous years, with a continuous increase in supply. On the demand side, after the "Golden September and Silver October" and "Double Eleven", orders have declined seasonally, but there is rigid demand support. According to BCO data, the commercial inventory in late November increased by only 10,000 tons year - on - year, reflecting the consumption resilience. Recently, the 01 contract has been strong in the short - term due to warehouse - receipt speculation. After the futures price rises above the hedging cost, it attracts industrial hedging positions, forming an "immediate ceiling". In the medium - to - long term, the domestic market may have a slight inventory increase or a tight balance in the new year. After the inventory inflection point, as the de - stocking process progresses, the upward pressure on cotton prices may gradually ease. Coupled with the uncertainty of the new - year planting subsidy policy, there is potential for price increase. - Outlook: In the short - term, it is difficult for the 01 contract to break through the pressure at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to be strong with oscillations. It is advisable to buy on dips [14]. 8. Sugar - Viewpoint: Short - term low - level oscillation. - Logic: In the medium - to - long term, the domestic and international sugar prices are likely to continue the "weak with oscillations" pattern. The core logic is that the 2025/2026 sugar - crushing season will see a significant surplus globally, with the four major sugar - producing countries (Brazil, India, Thailand, and China) increasing production simultaneously. After the start of the new sugar - crushing season in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply is becoming a reality. As of December 10, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing. Although the sugar production in November was lower than last year, with the subsequent increase in supply, the downward pressure on sugar prices will gradually increase. In the short - term, the downside space of the 01 contract is limited, and there is strong support around 5,300 yuan/ton, but in the medium - to - long term, sugar prices are still under pressure, and there is no sign of a reversal yet [14][15]. - Outlook: In the medium - to - long term, it is weak with oscillations. Due to the expected supply surplus in the new sugar - crushing season, there is a downward driving force for sugar prices. The strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended. In the short - term, there is support at 5,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. 9. Pulp - Viewpoint: The futures price has continued to decline, and an oscillatory trend is expected. - Logic: After a rapid rise, the pulp futures have declined in recent trading days. There were some bullish news last week, such as the increase in the US dollar - denominated price, the shutdown of pulp mills, and the significant decrease in port inventory. The current game point is whether the new bullish factors can push the price to break through the upper limit of the oscillatory range. Fundamentally, the price of broad - leaf pulp can be passed on downstream when the US dollar - denominated price rises and the domestic downstream production is at a peak. The narrowing price difference between needle - leaf and broad - leaf pulp supports the bottom of the needle - leaf pulp and the futures market. The expected supply reduction due to the shutdown of pulp mills is offset by the high inventory of pulp mills, but the actual actions of pulp mills increase the probability of an increase in the US dollar - denominated price of needle - leaf pulp. The upper - limit pressure comes from the fact that the current futures price allows for risk - free hedging in the US dollar - denominated and spot markets and the formation of warehouse receipts. The spot market of needle - leaf pulp has relatively abundant liquidity and slow sales, increasing the possibility of warehouse - receipt registration. Before the new US dollar - denominated price is determined at the end of the month, there are more bullish factors in the pulp market, which will push up the bottom of the futures price. It is unlikely to break below the low on December 1 again. However, there is still pressure at 5,500 - 5,600 yuan for any contract, and the price game in this range will continue. The far - month contracts are expected to show a wide - range oscillatory trend with a rising price. - Outlook: Oscillation. Bullish news raises the bottom, but the hedging pressure above remains unchanged. The pulp futures will mainly have a wide - range oscillatory trend [16]. 10. Double - Gum Paper - Viewpoint: The demand expectation is poor, and the price of double - gum paper is weakening. - Logic: In December, although there is提货 support from publishers, the market is pessimistic about the future demand. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price again, and it will continue to be weak in the short - term. The market changes include: some paper enterprises raised their quotes at the beginning of December, and some northern dealers slightly followed the price increase due to the cost pressure caused by the rise in broad - leaf pulp; the paper enterprises' production is generally stable, and the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises has increased; the current publishing orders have not been concentrated for提货, the social demand in the southern market is light, and the trading atmosphere of base paper is average, with the paper price basically stable; the upstream wood - pulp price is mainly rising, but the price increase of double - gum paper is limited by the demand side and lags behind the raw - material price. In the future, as publishers提货 in the middle of the month, the inventory pressure of paper enterprises may be relieved, but the social demand is light, and under the background of high overall costs, paper enterprises are expected to adjust the market supply and demand by reducing prices or production. - Outlook: The overall social demand is light. Supported by publishers'提货 and paper enterprises' costs, it will be weak but stable in the short - term [17]. 11. Logs - Viewpoint: Affected by warehouse - receipt pressure, the log price is weakening. - Logic: On December 10, 2025, 200 new warehouse receipts were added in Shandong, which was bearish for the futures market. Coupled with the recent weakness of the spot market, the market sentiment was further dragged down, and the near - month contract fell by 1.