供应扰动担忧发酵，多晶硅和碳酸锂交替领涨新能源金属

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Group 2: Report's Core View - Supply disruption concerns are intensifying, with polysilicon and lithium carbonate alternately leading the rally in new energy metals. In the medium - to - short - term, the adjustment of lithium ore production policies in Nigeria over the weekend supported lithium carbonate prices. Polysilicon prices initially declined due to the increase in registered brands but were later supported by the growing expectation of silicon material storage policies. In the long - term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, potentially raising the price center. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but the demand expectation is also increasing, narrowing the expected supply - demand surplus. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may occur earlier [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Industrial Silicon - View: Cost support is weakening, and silicon prices are continuously falling. The medium - term outlook is that the price will show an oscillatory trend [5][6]. - Information Analysis: As of December 10, the spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable. The latest domestic inventory increased by 1.3% month - on - month. In November 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon decreased by 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative production decreased by 15.3% year - on - year. In October, the export volume decreased by 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month but decreased by 38.3% year - on - year [5]. - Main Logic: The significant decline in coal prices has weakened cost support, leading to a decline in silicon prices. In terms of fundamentals, the production of industrial silicon in December is expected to decline. The demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weak, and the inventory accumulation trend continues, resulting in a weakening of the fundamentals [6]. Polysilicon - View: The expectation of storage is rising again, and polysilicon prices continue to show high volatility. The medium - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [7][9][10]. - Information Analysis: As of the week of December 10, the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased. In October 2025, the export volume decreased by 58% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 39.1% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. A new polysilicon platform company was registered, and new brands were added to the futures registration [7]. - Main Logic: The expectation of polysilicon storage is rising, leading to high - volatility prices. The demand for polysilicon has declined marginally, but the supply is also shrinking during the dry season, and the expectation of anti - involution policies is still fermenting, so the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - View: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and lithium prices are experiencing greater volatility. The medium - term outlook is high - level oscillation [10][11]. - Information Analysis: On December 10, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.43%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, while the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased. A lithium project was put into operation [10]. - Main Logic: The current market has strong supply and demand, and inventory is decreasing in December. The resumption of production at Jiaxiaowo may cause price fluctuations. The supply is expected to remain strong in December, and the demand is currently good but needs to be monitored in the off - season. The inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [10]. Group 4: Market Index Information - On December 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the special indexes such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index all increased. The new energy commodity index increased by 1.39% on the day, decreased by 1.44% in the past 5 days, increased by 2.49% in the past month, and increased by 6.81% since the beginning of the year [53][54].