宏观扰动频繁，盘?表现分化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of real - estate favorable policies is rising, and the market sentiment has improved. The steel and iron ore futures have rebounded significantly. However, the fundamentals in the off - season still have pressure, and the upward space of the steel futures is limited. The iron water has strong support due to the winter storage replenishment expectation. The coal and coke prices are still suppressed by the warehouse receipt pressure and the expectation of increased imports. The glass and soda ash are in an oversupply situation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Iron water has decreased significantly, and downstream demand has declined. Steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of replenishment demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure. The scrap steel fundamentals have limited contradictions. After the spot price decline, the cost - performance has recovered, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still has support. It is expected that the scrap steel price will oscillate [3]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and the expectation of the second - round price cut is strong. However, the coking and steel enterprises have gradually started winter storage replenishment, so there is still fundamental support. The current futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient driving force for a further significant decline. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal. The upcoming winter storage replenishment of downstream enterprises may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment of coking coal. Based on the expectation that the weakening degree of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level valuation of the futures is expected to gradually recover [3]. Alloys - For manganese silicon, the cost is firm, which supports the price. However, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, the cost transmission is not smooth, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level. For ferrosilicon, the high - level cost supports the bottom of the price, but the market supply - demand is weak, and the difficulty of inventory reduction still exists. The upward space of the futures price needs to be viewed with caution. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise. Recently, the decline in coal prices has led to a decline in cost expectations, resulting in weakening cost support. The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The expectation of real - estate policy benefits is strengthened, and the futures has rebounded from a low level. The spot market transactions are generally average. Steel mill maintenance has increased, and steel production has declined from a high level. The construction materials demand still has some support, and the overall steel inventory has continued to decline. However, the current steel inventory level is still higher year - on - year, and the inventory reduction speed is difficult to accelerate. It is expected that the futures will oscillate [8]. Iron Ore - Affected by macro - sentiment disturbances, the price oscillates. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival at ports has decreased significantly month - on - month. The demand has declined, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The iron water output may continue to decline seasonally, and the rigid demand support is gradually weakening. The replenishment demand has not been significantly released, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected that the ore price will oscillate in the short term [8][9]. Scrap Steel - The supply - demand contradictions are limited, and the spot price oscillates. The supply has recovered significantly this week, and the demand from electric furnaces and blast furnaces has changed slightly. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory available days are significantly higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the scrap steel price will oscillate [10]. Coke - The second - round price cut has started, and the futures is under pressure. The supply side has high production enthusiasm, and some coking enterprises' operations are restricted. The demand side has a seasonal decline in iron water production, and the inventory of coking enterprises has increased slightly. The cost support has weakened, and the expectation of the second - round price cut is strong. However, there is still fundamental support, and it is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. Coking Coal - The production remains at a low level, and the inventory accumulation of coal mines has slowed down. The domestic supply continues at a low level, and the imported Mongolian coal clearance remains at a high level. The downstream procurement has increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation of upstream coal mines has slowed down. The upcoming winter storage replenishment may improve the fundamentals and market sentiment, and the low - level valuation of the futures is expected to gradually recover [12]. Glass - Affected by policy expectations, the reality is still weak. The supply may decline in the long term, but there is difficult to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the large inventory of middle - stream always suppresses the futures valuation. If there is no further cold repair, the price may have a downward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly if there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, otherwise, the price will rise [14]. Soda Ash - The warehouse receipts are still increasing, and the price oscillates at a low level. The supply is expected to increase month - on - month, the demand for heavy soda is expected to weaken, and the procurement of light soda has not changed much. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [17]. Manganese Silicon - The cost price trend is strong, but the supply - demand is loose, suppressing the futures. The cost of manganese ore is strong, the demand from steel mills is weak, and the supply is difficult to shrink significantly. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [17][18]. Ferrosilicon - The cost reduction space is limited, and the supply - demand is weak, limiting the increase. The cost has support, the demand from steel mills and the metal magnesium industry is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [19].