Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5-3.75% on December 11, 2025, marking a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year[3]. - The dot plot indicates that the median expectation for 2026 is only one rate cut, reflecting significant internal disagreement among officials regarding economic conditions[16]. - The Fed's economic forecast for 2025-2028 shows an upward revision of GDP growth to 1.7% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, while maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.5% and 4.4% respectively[15]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Employment - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.4% in September 2025, the highest since October 2021, with projections suggesting it may reach around 4.45% by late 2025[30]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.0% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, reflecting a slight downward revision from previous forecasts[15]. - The Fed's strategy may involve further rate cuts in 2026, with expectations of 2-3 cuts, primarily in the first half of the year, as the labor market remains weak and inflation stabilizes[29]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the Fed's announcement, market reactions included a rise in stock prices and a decline in the dollar index, indicating a more dovish market sentiment[23]. - The Fed's independence may face challenges due to political pressures, which could influence future monetary policy decisions[24]. - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed chair could lead to a more dovish policy stance, although the overall committee may lean more hawkish due to changes in voting members[27].
粤开宏观：展望2026：美联储降息之路的图景与影响
Yuekai Securities·2025-12-11 00:50