股市政策博弈情绪渐浓，债市延续暖意

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment of policy gaming in the domestic stock market is intensifying, but the shrinking trading volume limits its sustainability. The bond market sentiment continues to be positive [1][2]. - For stock index futures, the "Spring Rally" offensive timing still needs to wait, and in the short - term, focus on the price - increase chain and high - dividend stocks. For stock index options, continue to hold short options for defensive enhancement. For bond futures, the bond market is likely to return to a volatile state in the short - term and is expected to be volatile and bullish in the long - term [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Views: The sentiment of domestic policy gaming is intensifying, but the shrinking trading volume limits its sustainability [1][6]. - Logic: On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded after hitting the bottom, barely holding above 3900 points, with the trading volume shrinking to 1.79 trillion yuan. There were two intraday movements: Vanke's limit - up in the afternoon and the active retail sector. The PCB and photovoltaic sectors that were strong in the first half of the week adjusted. The Fed's December interest - rate decision is unlikely to bring additional benefits to A - shares. In the shrinking - volume environment, it is difficult to form a continuous main line [1][6]. - Operation Suggestion: Long positions in Dividend ETF + IC [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - Views: Use covered strategies for defensive enhancement [2][6]. - Logic: The equity index was weak first and then strong yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%. The trading volume of each option variety rebounded by 25.32%. The market's long - short game is more intense. Considering the possible volatile market, it is recommended to continue holding short options for defensive enhancement [2][6]. - Operation Suggestion: Covered options [6]. 3.1.3 Bond Futures - Views: The bond market sentiment continues to be positive [2][7]. - Logic: Bond futures rose across the board yesterday. The inter - bank market liquidity was more abundant, and the overnight repo rate decreased. The short - end pressure is not large, but the supply of long - term bonds may be weak. In the short - term, the market depends on subsequent policies, and in the long - term, the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish [2][7][9]. - Operation Suggestion: Trend strategy: Volatility. Hedging strategy: Short - term short hedging, medium - term long substitution. Basis strategy: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening. Curve strategy: Pay attention to the curve steepening [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On December 10, 2025, China's November CPI year - on - year was 0.7% (previous value 0.2%), and PPI year - on - year was - 2.2% (previous value - 2.1%). On December 9, 2025, the number of job openings in the US in October was 7670000 (previous value 7227000, forecast 7117000) [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue the first and second phases of the 2025 maturity continued special treasury bonds on December 12, 2025, with face values of 400 billion yuan and 350 billion yuan respectively [10]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from the settlement after the close on December 12, 2025, the trading margin ratio and the daily price limit range of the silver futures AG2602 contract will be adjusted [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring The report lists the sections for monitoring stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures data, but no specific data content is provided.