美联储系列三十：12月“降息+准备金购买”，未来在分歧加大下保持观望

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's December interest - rate decision marked a key policy shift from tightening to maintaining liquidity, but there were also significant internal disagreements on the subsequent rate - cut path, making the future more uncertain. The Fed's released liquidity is expected to support risk assets, but due to factors like the US economic situation and fiscal deficits, the decline in US bond yields is likely limited, and asset prices will be driven more by growth and inflation data [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Fed's Interest - rate Decision - On December 11, 2025, at 3 am Beijing time, the Fed announced a 25 - basis - point rate cut, lowering the interest rate to 3.5% - 3.75% and the excess reserve rate from 3.9% to 3.65%, in line with expectations. It also ended the balance - sheet reduction and initiated reserve - management purchases [2]. - The Fed's policy has shifted from balance - sheet reduction to maintaining sufficient liquidity by starting monthly reserve - management purchases of $40 billion in short - term Treasury bills. The dot - plot indicates a significant slowdown in the pace of easing, with a projection of only one rate cut next year [3]. - There was a "three - vote opposition" within the FOMC for the first time since 2019, showing a large divergence in views on the rate - cut rhythm and risk preference among policymakers [3]. Market Reaction - After the rate cut, US bond yields dropped rapidly, the stock market strengthened, the US dollar index fell to a monthly low, gold fluctuated upwards, and risk assets like Bitcoin first rose and then fell, presenting a typical multi - asset divergence pattern on a rate - cut day [4]. Future Outlook - The marginal improvement in liquidity released by the Fed will support risk assets. However, as the US economy is in a moderate expansion and inflation decline has stickiness, rapid easing is not supported. - Fiscal deficits and high bond supply set a structural lower limit on long - term interest rates. Given that the market has fully priced in the soft - landing and rate - cut expectations, further decline in US bond yields requires stronger evidence of recession or rapid inflation decline, and US bonds are more likely to trade within a range. The core driver of asset prices will shift from policy expectations to growth and inflation data [4]. Economic Forecast | Variable | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Long - term | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Real GDP | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | | Unemployment Rate | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | | PCE | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2 | 2 | | Core PCE | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2 | | | Interest Rate | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3 | [28]