12月FOMC会议点评：降息温和偏鸽，内部分歧扩大

Economic Projections - The projected change in real GDP for 2025 is 1.7%, increasing to 2.3% in 2026, and stabilizing at 2.0% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028, with a long-term average of 1.8%[6] - The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.2% by 2028, maintaining a long-term rate of 4.2%[6] - PCE inflation is projected to decline from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.0% by 2028, with a long-term target of 2.0%[6] Federal Funds Rate - The Federal funds rate is projected to be 3.6% in 2025, decreasing to 3.1% by 2027 and stabilizing at 3.0% in the long run[6] - The September projection for the Federal funds rate was consistent with the current projections, indicating stability in monetary policy expectations[6] Market Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 22.1% probability of the Federal funds rate being between 325-350 basis points by January 2026, with probabilities increasing for subsequent meetings[11] - By March 2026, the probability of the rate being between 350-375 basis points rises to 52.0%[11] Inflation and Economic Stability - Core PCE inflation is projected to decrease from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.0% by 2028, aligning with the long-term inflation target[6] - The projections suggest a gradual stabilization of inflation rates, contributing to overall economic stability[6]