宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025年12月11日）-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar 2605 will experience low - level fluctuations in the short, medium, and intraday periods, with an intraday bias towards a slightly stronger trend. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. - The real - estate policy利好 expectations are fermenting again, and market sentiment has improved, leading the steel price to rebound from a low level. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Although the supply has dropped to a low level, providing support for the steel price, the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues to be weak, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and downstream industries have not improved, with subsequent seasonal weakening, which will drag down the steel price. Overall, the steel price is under pressure, and the relatively positive factors are policy expectations and low valuations, so the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "slightly stronger oscillation", with an overall view of "low - level oscillation". The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The real - estate policy利好 expectations are fermenting again, and market sentiment has improved, causing the steel price to rebound from a low level. The supply of rebar has dropped to a low level, supporting the steel price, but the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production cuts is uncertain. The demand for rebar continues to be weak, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, downstream industries have not improved, and the demand will seasonally weaken, dragging down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure, and the relatively positive factors are policy expectations and low valuations. The subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by the Steel Union today [2].