宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年12月11日）-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term prices of soybean - related futures will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern, with far - month contracts being weaker. The short - term price of palm oil futures has turned to weakly oscillating. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term: weakly oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating. [5] - Core Logic: Last night, the price of US soybean futures rebounded from a low level due to improved export demand. Argentina's reduction of export tariffs on soybeans and their products may enhance its export competitiveness and squeeze the market share of US soybeans. Despite the USDA report keeping the 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks at 290 million bushels, there are still concerns about South American supply pressure. The domestic market shows conflicting signals. Spot prices have stopped falling, but the expectation of accelerated customs clearance for imported soybeans has intensified the expectation of loose long - term supply. Near - month contracts are relatively resistant to decline, while the cost support for far - month contracts is significantly weakened. [5][6] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Short - term: weakly oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating. [7] - Core Logic: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of November soared 13% month - on - month to 2.84 million tons, far exceeding market expectations and reaching a six - and - a - half - year high, mainly due to a cliff - like 28.1% decline in exports to 1.213 million tons. Domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated to 719,000 tons due to increased imports and weakening demand. Overall demand is lower than expected, with the growth rate of catering consumption slowing down and the procurement volume of small - package oils down 15% year - on - year. The narrowing of the soybean - palm oil price spread to 500 yuan/ton has suppressed the blending demand for palm oil. The domestic palm oil market is currently in a stage dominated by "weak reality", and the process of destocking high inventory determines the price movement center. The sentiment in the oil market has weakened. In the future, attention should be paid to Indonesia's biodiesel policy trends and the procurement rhythm of major importing countries. [7]