宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025年12月11日）-20251211

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to experience wide - range oscillations. In the short - term, favorable factors have pushed the ore price to a high level, but the market fundamentals are weak due to strong supply and weak demand, and the upward driving force is not strong. The price will maintain high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term trend is "oscillating", the intraday trend is "oscillating weakly", and the overall view is "wide - range oscillation". The core logic is that short - term favorable factors have fermented, leading to the high - level operation of the ore price [1] Market Driving Logic - The fermentation of spot structural contradictions and the expectation of real - estate favorable policies support the ore price to return to a high level in the short term. However, the demand for iron ore is continuously declining as steel mills' end - year maintenance leads to a continuous decrease in ore terminal consumption. At the same time, domestic port arrivals have decreased while overseas miners' shipments have increased, and both are at relatively high levels within the year. Although domestic ore supply is shrinking, there is still supply pressure. Overall, the supply - demand situation shows strong supply and weak demand, and the market fundamentals are weak, but the price remains high due to short - term favorable factors [2]