金融期货早班车-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long term, the report maintains a bullish view on the economy and suggests that using stock index futures as a long - term alternative can yield certain excess returns. It recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. For bond futures, considering the upward trend of risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it suggests hedging on rallies for T and TL contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - On December 10th, the four major A - share stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.23% to close at 3900.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29% to 13316.42 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.02% to 3209 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.03% to 1346.7 points. Market turnover was 17,916 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,261 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, real estate (+2.53%), commerce and retail (+1.97%), and social services (+1.22%) led the gains, while banks (-1.58%), power equipment (-0.87%), and computers (-0.63%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 2,433, 178, and 2,841 respectively. Net inflows of institutional, main force, large - investor, and retail funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 59 billion yuan, - 141 billion yuan, 26 billion yuan, and 174 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +98 billion yuan, +62 billion yuan, - 22 billion yuan, and - 138 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On December 10th, interest - rate bonds stabilized and rose. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.04%, TF rose 0.06%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.3% [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Basis and Annualized Yield: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 118.24, 90.19, 34.23, and 14.04 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 15.35%, - 12.12%, - 7.17%, and - 4.52% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 14%, 14%, 15%, and 21% respectively [3]. - Trading Strategy: In the medium to long term, maintain a bullish view on the economy. Using stock index futures as a long - term alternative can yield certain excess returns. Recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3.3 Bond Futures - Spot Bonds: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. The CTD bond of the 2 - year bond futures is 250017.IB, with a yield change of - 1.05bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.046, and an IRR of 1.62%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year bond futures is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of - 0.45bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.09, and an IRR of 1.79%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year bond futures is 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 0.3bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.023, and an IRR of 1.54%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year bond futures is 220008.IB, with a yield change of - 1.15bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.011, and an IRR of 1.43% [3]. - Funding Situation: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 189.8 billion yuan and withdrew 79.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan [3]. - Trading Strategy: In the medium to long term, considering the upward trend of risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, suggest hedging on rallies for T and TL contracts [3]. 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of December, the manufacturing and real - estate sectors were less prosperous than in previous periods, while import and export data were relatively strong. Further observation is needed [10].