12月美联储议息会议传递的信号：联储：扩表更重要

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the federal funds target rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%[1] - The Fed initiated a Reserve Management Purchase tool, starting with a purchase of $40 billion in short-term bonds with maturities of one year or less[2] - The Fed's balance sheet expansion aims to maintain adequate reserve levels, as bank reserves are currently at a critical state, with reserves constituting 9% of GDP[3] Group 2: Economic Projections - GDP growth forecast for 2025 was slightly revised up from 1.6% to 1.7%, while the 2026 forecast was significantly raised from 1.8% to 2.3%[4] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026[4] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 is set at 2.9%, with a slight decrease to 2.4% for 2026[4] Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - The dot plot indicates one potential rate cut in 2026, totaling 25 basis points, which is more hawkish than previous expectations[4] - The Fed is expected to continue with one more rate cut in Q1 2026, likely in March, before the new chair takes over[7] - The potential for unexpected rate cuts in 2026 is limited due to ongoing inflationary pressures[7] Group 4: Market Implications - The adjustment in monetary policy is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures, leading to a rise in U.S. stock markets and a decline in bond yields and the dollar[4] - The dollar index is anticipated to remain stable around 100, while the Chinese yuan may appreciate against the dollar[11] - The overall outlook for U.S. equities remains positive, driven by economic momentum and technological advancements[11]