国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the trends of various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The core views are that iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation; rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by real - estate sector sentiment and are in low - level oscillations; ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations; and logs are in low - level oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the 12601 futures contract was 787.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.96% from the previous day. The position decreased by 28,717 hands to 155,293 hands. Among spot prices, imported ore prices such as Carajás fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), etc., all increased by 2 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro and Industry News: In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.244 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In the first 11 months, the retail sales were 21.75 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [4]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. 3.2 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the RB2605 rebar futures contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.97%; the HC2605 hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.58%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil positions decreased by 79,529 hands and 2,506 hands respectively [7]. - Macro and Industry News: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on December 4, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 27.67 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.55 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 35.22 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 16.77 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.7 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 26.76 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 10.96 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.36 tons, and the total decreased by 23.83 tons [7]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. 3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Data: For ferrosilicon, the 2603 contract closed at 5434 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the 2605 contract closed at 5394 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. For silicomanganese, the 2603 contract closed at 5724 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 2605 contract closed at 5768 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also showed certain fluctuations [11]. - Macro and Industry News: On December 11, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was reported. The offer prices of South32, CML, and Comilog for manganese ore in January 2026 were also announced, with some prices rising. HeSteel's 12 - month ferrosilicon inquiry price decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to November, while the quantity increased by 34 tons; the procurement of silicomanganese by a large steel group in Hebei decreased by 1300 tons in December, and the inquiry price decreased by 120 yuan/ton compared to November [12][13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. 3.4 Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 963 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 2.1%; the J2601 coke futures contract was 1527 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.9%. Positions of both decreased [14]. - Macro and Industry News: On December 10, the national consumer price index in November 2025 increased by 0.7% year - on - year [15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. 3.5 Logs - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the 2601 log futures contract on December 10 was 756 yuan/m³, down 1.4% from the previous day and 1.1% from the previous week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the position decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions showed little change [19]. - Macro and Industry News: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improved business climate [21]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21].