沥青：地缘反复，阶段性小幅反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-11 02:09

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View The report focuses on the asphalt market, indicating that due to geopolitical uncertainties, there will be a small - scale and phased rebound. Key statistics show production, inventory changes, and price trends in the asphalt market [1][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: BU2602 closed at 2,940 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.10% change, and 2,946 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.20% change. BU2603 closed at 2,958 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.17% change, and 2,960 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.07% change. Trading volume and open interest had different changes [1]. - Spot Market Data: The wholesale price in Shandong was 2,930 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Yangtze River Delta was 3,150 yuan/ton with no change. The refinery operating rate was 33.12% (down 1.28% from the previous period), and the refinery inventory rate was 27.21% (up 0.21% from the previous period) [1]. - Price Difference Data: The basis (Shandong - 02) was - 10 yuan/ton with a 3 - yuan change; the 02 - 03 inter - period spread was - 18 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan change; the Shandong - South China spread was - 80 yuan/ton with no change; the East China - South China spread was 140 yuan/ton with no change [1]. Market Information - Production: From December 2 - 8, 2025, the weekly asphalt production was 51.4 tons, a 1.8% increase from the previous week and a 1.2% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to December was 2,953.1 tons, a 7.9% increase year - on - year [11]. - Inventory: As of December 8, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 63.4 tons, a 1.3% increase from December 4. The inventory of 104 social warehouses was 103.6 tons, a 1.8% decrease from December 4 [11]. Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8].