LLDPE：单边下跌，基差再度转弱

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report LLDPE shows a unilateral decline, and the basis has weakened again. The futures market is under pressure, and the spot market is accelerating its decline. The supply and demand situation is facing pressure due to high - capacity and weakening demand [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2601 is 6561, with a daily increase of 0.06%. The trading volume is 601,624, and the open interest decreased by 72,250 [1]. - Basis and Spread Changes: The basis of the 01 contract is - 61 (compared to 13 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread is - 38 (compared to - 53 the previous day) [1]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 6500 yuan/ton, 6700 yuan/ton, and 6600 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline from the previous day [1]. Spot News The futures market is under pressure, and the LL spot in North China accelerated its decline after a temporary premium. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased recently. Upstream is selling at reduced prices, and the demand is marginally weakening, resulting in poor inventory - holding willingness in the industry. The offers from the Middle East and the US in November decreased, and the shipments are expected to arrive in Q1 2026 [1]. Market Condition Analysis The raw material crude oil price fluctuates, the monomer segment rebounds slightly, and the supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE futures market fluctuates at a low level. The downstream agricultural film demand is marginally weakening, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the middle and downstream to hold inventory has weakened. The upstream is selling at a discounted price at the end of the year, and the factory inventory is slightly reduced, resulting in a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, and the maintenance plan in December is neutral. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high - capacity and weakening demand [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [2].