20251211申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20251211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading at low levels. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. The previous downward trend in polyolefin valuations was influenced by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. However, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp, international crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded, which will support domestic polyolefin prices, and the market may gradually stop falling and rebound to repair valuations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6561, 6599, and 6635 respectively, with price changes of 4, -11, and -21, and percentage changes of 0.06%, -0.17%, and -0.32%. The trading volumes were 289654, 280955, and 2747, and the open interests were 267012, 409894, and 6370, with changes of -72250, 50119, and 625 [2] - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6162, 6243, and 6283 respectively, with price changes of -30, -37, and -39, and percentage changes of -0.48%, -0.59%, and -0.62%. The trading volumes were 272617, 203963, and 3106, and the open interests were 380203, 374591, and 19070, with changes of -30955, 33415, and 432 [2] - Spreads: For LL, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -38, -36, and 74 respectively (previous values were -53, -46, and 99). For PP, the spreads were -81, -40, and 121 respectively (previous values were -88, -42, and 130) [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film are 2057 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 596 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6030 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Spot Market: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6700 - 7100, 6550 - 6850, and 6650 - 7050 respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6150 - 6350, 6100 - 6250, and 6200 - 6400 respectively [2] News - On Wednesday (December 10), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.46 per barrel, up $0.21 or 0.36% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.66 - $59.05. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.21 per barrel, up $0.27 or 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.35 - $62.73 [2]