油脂油料：申万期货品种策略日报-20251211

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Night trading of protein meal: Soybean meal was weak, while rapeseed meal rose slightly. Brazilian soybean sowing progress has accelerated, but US soybean exports are still slightly slow. There is a gap between the current sales volume to China and the procurement target. The USDA monthly supply and demand report provided limited support, and the price of US soybean futures is weak. In China, the expected supply of new - season South American soybeans is abundant, and the import cost has decreased. The release of the soybean auction announcement by CGS also puts pressure on prices, and the overall performance is weak [2]. - Night trading of oils: Oils were strong. The MPOB report shows that the production and exports of Malaysian palm oil in November decreased, while the inventory increased. The inventory pressure in the producing areas is significant, and the inventory inflection point may appear in December. The USDA report is neutral, and oils are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Domestic Futures: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8230, 8706, and 9502 respectively, with price drops of - 36, - 64, and - 116 and declines of - 0.44%, - 0.73%, and - 3.15% respectively. The previous day's closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2778, 2395, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 43, - 2, and 26 and changes of - 1.52%, - 0.08%, and 0.29% respectively. The spreads and price - to - price ratios of various varieties also changed compared with the previous values [1]. - International Futures: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4079 (Ringgit/ton), 1094 (cents/bushel), 51 (cents/pound), and 307 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price drops of - 39, - 12, - 1, and - 1 and declines of - 0.95%, - 1.04%, - 1.01%, and - 0.20% respectively [1]. Spot Market - Domestic Spot: The current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8490 and 8520 respectively, with increases of 0.47% and 0.59%. The current prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8740 and 8640 respectively, with no change. The current prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9680 and 9830 respectively, with increases of 0.52% and 0.51%. The current prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3040 and 3030 respectively, with increases of 1.33% and 0.66%. The current prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2380 and 2460 respectively, with increases of 0.42% and 0.41%. The current prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7150, with changes of 0.00% and - 1.38% respectively. The spot spreads and basis of various varieties also changed compared with the previous values [1]. - Import and Crushing Profit: The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 501, - 363, - 145, - 313, 278, and 776 respectively, with changes compared with the previous values [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 25,964, 452, 3,490, 23,830, 0, and 0 respectively, with changes compared with the previous values [1]. Industry Information - According to MPOB, in November, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.9355 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.30%; exports were 1.2128 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.13%; and the ending inventory was 2.8354 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.04%. According to USDA, US private exporters sold 136,000 tons of soybeans to China, 119,000 tons to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 season, and 120,000 tons of soybean meal to Poland [2].