中原期货晨会纪要-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% for the third time this year, with a plan to start purchasing about $40 billion of short - term Treasuries per month from December 12. The dot - plot predicts one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively [7]. - China's economy shows significant resilience, with the IMF raising its growth forecasts for China in 2025 and 2026 to 5.0% and 4.5% respectively [9]. - China's AI has entered an application explosion period, with the number of AI applications reaching 657 by October, a year - on - year increase of 61.8%, and the mobile user scale exceeding 700 million [9]. - For the stock market, the future market index needs to transition from a liquidity - driven bull market to a fundamental - driven one, and before that, consolidation is the main theme [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On December 11, 2025, among domestic chemical products, paper pulp had the largest increase of 2.796%, while fuel oil had the largest decrease of 1.030% compared to December 10 [4]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - On December 11, 2025, among domestic agricultural products, rapeseed oil had the largest increase of 1.356%, while white sugar had the largest decrease of 1.877% compared to December 10 [4]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The market lacks strong drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with pressure around 8120 yuan and support around 8050 yuan [11]. - Sugar: Under the pressure of internal and external supply, the sugar price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern, with support around 5300 yuan/ton [11]. - Corn: The price may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support around 2220 yuan and pressure around 2250 yuan [11]. - Pigs: The futures market shows a contradiction between weak reality and improved expectations. It is recommended to do long with a small number of warehouse receipts and conduct reverse spreads on the inter - month spread [11]. - Eggs: The market is expected to oscillate strongly, with short positions partially closing for profit and inter - month reverse spreads continuing to be held [12]. - Cotton: The current market lacks a clear driver, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with pressure at 13800 yuan and support around 13700 yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The futures price may continue to oscillate weakly, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in off - season storage and export quotas [12]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the 2601 contract continues to operate weakly, with a short - selling mindset [12]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate weakly at a low level in the short term [13]. - Logs: It is recommended to adopt a short - selling mindset, with support at the intraday low of 747 yuan and pressure at 768 yuan [13]. - Pulp: In the medium term, it may maintain an oscillating pattern, with support around 5350 yuan/ton and pressure at 5600 yuan/ton [13]. - Offset Printing Paper: It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, and interval trading can be considered with support at 4000 points and pressure around 4100 points [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper and aluminum prices fluctuate sharply at high levels, and macro risks should be noted [17]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation is in surplus. If the price further drops, pay attention to enterprise production cuts, and the 2601 contract operates at a low level [18]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term, with rebar at 3050 - 3200 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3350 yuan [19]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are not strongly driven, and prices fluctuate weakly following the black series [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is recommended to wait and see, and beware of price corrections due to insufficient demand or increased supply [21]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Options: Trend investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [23]. - Stock Index: The market is in a period of waiting for a new main line. The Central Economic Work Conference may be a key policy window for the "cross - year market". The spring market may require the resonance of multiple factors [24].