宁证期货今日早评-20251211

Group 1: Precious Metals - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, the third cut this year. Precious metals are still oscillating with a slight upward bias [1]. - Powell's view on inflation and the economy is positive, and the dot - plot shows 1 - 2 more potential rate cuts. Gold may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term [8]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The EIA report shows a decrease in US commercial crude inventories, an increase in domestic production, and a delay in the repair of Kazakhstan's CPC terminal. The oil market is in a stage of supply - demand game, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. Group 3: Steel and Iron Ore - The domestic steel market was oscillating stronger on December 10. This week, the steel market may first decline and then rise due to supply - demand and market sentiment [4]. - From December 1st - 7th, Chinese port iron ore arrivals decreased. The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand relationship, and prices are expected to weaken and oscillate [4]. Group 4: Coking Coal - Mongolian coal imports are increasing, putting pressure on the coking coal market. However, due to macro - economic expectations and potential coal mine production cuts, the downward trend's sustainability needs to be observed [5]. Group 5: Long - term Treasury Bonds - China's inflation data shows a slow economic recovery. Tightening capital and rising stock market expectations are negative for the bond market, but the downward space is limited [5]. Group 6: Palm Oil - The MPOB report shows a significant increase in palm oil inventory and a decline in exports. The market will focus on December exports, and short - term interval trading is recommended [6]. Group 7: Soybean Meal - Domestic soybean meal prices increased on December 10. Weak domestic aquaculture may limit demand, and the M05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Group 8: Live Pigs - On December 10, the national live pig price rebounded slightly. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and short - term short - selling after rebounds is advisable [7]. Group 9: PTA - Polyester inventory is at a low level, and PTA device maintenance is concentrated. Short - term trading after a decline is recommended, but be cautious when chasing high prices [8]. Group 10: Rubber - China's natural rubber inventory is slowly accumulating, and downstream demand is insufficient. The market is expected to oscillate [9]. Group 11: Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand has increased slightly. Port inventory has decreased significantly, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. Group 12: Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high production and inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium term [11]. Group 13: Plastics - The supply of plastics is strong, and demand is weak. Production enterprise inventory has increased, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Group 14: Copper - The Fed's rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. After the short - term rate - cut expectation ends, the upward drive will return to supply - shortage factors. Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level oscillation pattern [13].