资产配置快评：美联储继续降息，同时重启扩表——12月美联储议息会议点评2025年第8期

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points in December, lowering the federal funds rate range from 4%-3.75% to 3.75%-3.5%[1] - The Fed raised its economic growth forecast for the U.S. next year while lowering inflation expectations, with the 2026 GDP growth forecast increased by 0.5% to 2.3% and the core PCE forecast reduced by 0.1% to 2.5%[1][4] Future Rate Projections - The latest dot plot indicates the Fed may cut rates once in both 2026 and 2027, with no cuts expected in 2028, maintaining a neutral rate at 3%[1][4] - The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is not expected to be lower than 3.25%, with a similar outlook for 2027[4] Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision to purchase short-term U.S. Treasury securities aims to maintain ample reserve levels, unrelated to monetary policy stance[1][5] - The Fed's actions support a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, with potential upward pressure on the dollar and long-term Treasury yields[1][7] Risks and Market Reactions - Risks include a potential price war in the oil market and systemic financial risks in emerging markets[2] - Following the Fed's rate cuts from April to September, U.S. equities, the dollar, and long-term Treasury yields have shown upward trends, indicating a shift in market sentiment[7]