沪铜日评20251211：高位价格抑制下游需求施压铜价-20251211

1. Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251211: High Prices Suppress Downstream Demand and Pressure Copper Prices" [2] 2. Key Data of Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contracts 2.1 Trading Volume - On December 10, 2025, the trading volume was 143,313 hands, compared with 146,066 hands on December 9, 2025, a decrease of 44,343 hands [3] 2.2 Open Interest - On December 10, 2025, the open interest was 200,373 hands, compared with 210,572 hands on December 9, 2025, a decrease of 10,199 hands [3] 2.3 Inventory - On December 10, 2025, the inventory was 28,931 tons, compared with 29,531 tons on December 9, 2025, a decrease of 600 tons [3] 3. Other Copper - Related Data 3.1 Copper Spot Premium and Discount - SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price on December 10, 2025, was 92,215, a decrease of 515 compared with the previous day [3] - SMM flat - water copper open - premium/discount - average price on December 10, 2025, was - 55, a decrease of 10 compared with the previous day [3] 3.2 Copper Price Spreads - Shanghai - London copper price ratio on December 10, 2025, was 7.9458 [3] - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on December 10, 2025, was 11,559.5 [3] 4. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis 4.1 Supply - There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, making the Chinese copper concentrate import index continuously negative, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The scrap copper supply has increased, and the domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased compared with the previous month [3] 4.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods have decreased compared with the previous week, while those of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand procurement [3] 4.3 Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper, and the COMEX copper inventory have all increased compared with the previous week [3] 5. Core Viewpoint - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion, and production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines exist. However, high copper prices suppress downstream demand and lead to the expectation of inventory accumulation, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to adjust [3] 6. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then layout long positions. Pay attention to the support level of 85,000 - 90,000 and the resistance level of 97,000 - 107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 10,600 - 11,000 and the resistance level of 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; the support level of 5.0 - 5.2 and the resistance level of 5.6 - 6.0 for US copper [3]