宏观金融类：文字早评2025-12-11-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty in the market due to some funds cashing in profits at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, focus on the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, and in the long - term, the idea is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, at the end of the year, the bond market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Pay attention to the rebound after the bond market is oversold [7]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, the silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase. Pay attention to the pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg for Shanghai silver, and consider taking profit. The reference operating range for Shanghai gold is 940 - 989 yuan/g, and for Shanghai silver is 13,232 - 14,500 yuan/kg [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are affected by factors such as Fed policies, supply and demand, and inventory. Some metals are expected to rise in the short - term, while others may be in a volatile state [12][14][20]. - For black building materials, steel products are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and iron ore is expected to oscillate widely. Glass and soda ash markets are recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [34][36][38]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber can be considered for short - term long positions on dips, and crude oil is recommended to wait for the test of OPEC's export price - support intention [53][55]. - For agricultural products, different products have different supply - demand situations. For example, the supply pressure of live pigs is still large, and the egg market may have high - valued contracts [75][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - Market Information: Commercial aerospace is accelerating "going global", the State Drug Administration will focus on certain products, Vanke will discuss bond extension, and Meta may launch a new model [2]. - Basis Ratio: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - Strategy: Be cautious in the short - term and go long on dips in the long - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed. China's November CPI and PPI data are released, and the IMF raises China's economic growth forecast. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations [5]. - Strategy: The bond market is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the rebound [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: The prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver change. The Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support the price of precious metals [8]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the pressure level of silver and consider taking profit. Provide reference operating ranges for gold and silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Information: The Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion make copper prices rise. LME and domestic copper inventories change, and the spot premium and import loss are provided [11]. - Strategy: Copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, and pay attention to inventory changes and policy announcements [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices rebound. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories change, and the spot premium and processing fee are provided [13]. - Strategy: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [14]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices change, and inventory data of domestic and LME zinc are provided [15]. - Strategy: In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to be strong following copper and aluminum, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains [17]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices decline, and inventory and price data are provided [18]. - Strategy: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to low domestic social inventory [19]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices are weak. Spot prices, cost, and nickel - iron prices are provided [20]. - Strategy: Nickel prices may oscillate in the short - term, and wait for further signals [20]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices rise. Supply and demand situations, including import, production, and consumption, are provided [22]. - Strategy: Tin prices may strengthen after the release of macro risks. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The price of carbonate lithium rises, and futures and spot prices are provided [25]. - Strategy: There is no clear trend in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the lithium - battery sector [25]. Alumina - Market Information: Alumina prices decline, and inventory, basis, and overseas price data are provided [26]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to supply - side policies [27]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices rise, and inventory and raw - material prices are provided [29]. - Strategy: The high - inventory pressure is significant. Pay attention to the actual implementation of steel - mill production cuts [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebound, and inventory and trading volume data are provided [30]. - Strategy: Cast aluminum alloy prices may follow aluminum prices in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rise, and inventory and spot - price data are provided [33]. - Strategy: Steel products are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and pay attention to the winter - storage price and policy announcements [34]. Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices rise, and inventory, basis, and shipping data are provided [35]. - Strategy: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate widely, and pay attention to policy expectations and Fed meetings [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices decline, and inventory and trading - volume data are provided. Soda ash prices decline, and inventory and production - capacity data are provided [37][39]. - Strategy: Glass is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset, and soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [38][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices decline, and spot - price data are provided [40]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the black - sector policy and potential cost changes [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices decline, and polysilicon prices change slightly. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [43][45]. - Strategy: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely [44][48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices rebound, and factors such as conflicts and inventory are analyzed. Tire - factory开工率 and inventory data are provided [50][52]. - Strategy: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish mindset, and consider short - term long positions on dips [53]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil and refined - oil prices decline, and inventory data of a port are provided [54]. - Strategy: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. Wait for the test of OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices change, and basis and inventory data are provided [56]. - Strategy: Methanol is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - Market Information: Urea prices change, and basis and inventory data are provided [57]. - Strategy: Urea is expected to build a bottom in an oscillatory manner. Consider long positions on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [58]. - Strategy: Consider going long on non - integrated styrene profits when the inventory inflection point appears [59]. PVC - Market Information: PVC prices decline, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [60]. - Strategy: Adopt a bearish mindset and go short on rallies [61]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [62][63]. - Strategy: Be aware of the risk of a rebound in the short - term, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak [64]. PTA - Market Information: PTA prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [65]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [66]. p - Xylene - Market Information: PX prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [67]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: PE prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - Strategy: Go short on the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: PP prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - Strategy: Wait for the change in the cost - side supply - surplus pattern in Q1 next year [72]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices change, and regional supply - demand situations are analyzed [74]. - Strategy: Retain the reverse - spread idea, and gradually shift the focus from shorting the near - term contract to longing the far - term contract [75]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices change, and market trading situations are provided [76]. - Strategy: Be cautious about the high - valued contracts [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: CBOT soybean prices rise slightly, and domestic soybean and meal supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [78]. - Strategy: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: MPOB data shows the situation of Malaysian palm oil, and domestic oil prices change [81]. - Strategy: Try to go long on dips for palm oil [82]. Sugar - Market Information: Sugar prices change, and production data of major sugar - producing countries are provided [83]. - Strategy: Be bearish on the large - scale trend, and wait and see in the short - term [84]. Cotton - Market Information: Cotton prices oscillate, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [85]. - Strategy: It is difficult for cotton prices to have a unilateral trend [86].