黑色建材日报：终端需求一般，玻碱震荡下跌-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall terminal demand is average, and the prices of various black building materials show different trends, with some fluctuating up and others down [1][3][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,117 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,282 yuan/ton. The overall spot steel transactions were good, the market rose, and low-price speculation and futures-spot purchases increased [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: The supply-demand fundamentals of building materials continue to improve. Although consumption has declined, production has also decreased, and inventory pressure has further eased. The improvement of the supply-demand fundamentals of plates is insufficient, and high inventories continue to suppress plate prices. Appropriate production cuts are needed to reduce the pressure of seasonal inventory accumulation in the later stage. With the continuous cooling in various places, the off-season of building material demand has arrived [1] - Strategy: Unilateral, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-period, cross-variety, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The price of iron ore futures rose slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port were relatively strong. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid needs. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports was 715,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 37.12% [3] - Supply and Demand Logic: This week, the shipment of iron ore increased slightly, and the daily average hot metal output continued to decline. Currently, the iron ore price remains at a relatively high level. However, due to market factors, the inventory of some iron ore varieties is locked, keeping the price high. If external factors are removed later and the inventory is released intensively, the iron ore price will face certain pressure [3] - Strategy: Unilateral, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-variety, cross-period, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward yesterday. In the spot market, coal prices in the main production areas continued to decline. Currently, end-users such as the chemical industry maintain on-demand procurement, and most coal mines continue to reduce prices to destock. Some steel mills plan to lower the price of wet-quenched coke. The transaction of imported Mongolian coal continued to be weak, dropping to around 960 yuan/ton [5] - Supply and Demand Logic: For coking coal, with the sharp decline in the futures market, the expectation of a decline in coke prices is strong, and the support of rigid demand for raw materials is weak. In the short term, coal prices will still fluctuate weakly and stably. For coke, affected by environmental protection factors, the supply has shrunk slightly. Coupled with the maintenance plans of some steel mills, the demand for coke has weakened. In the future, attention should be paid to the hot metal output and the trend of coking coal prices [5][6] - Strategy: For coking coal and coke, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-variety, cross-period, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the producing areas, coal prices in the main production areas continued to fluctuate downward. Currently, the market is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude. End-users with rigid demand purchase on demand, and some reduce prices and quantities. Under the spread of pessimistic sentiment, coal prices will fluctuate downward in the short term. In the port market, the recent weak trend has continued, and the price center of gravity has continued to move down. The inventory of northern ports has continued to rise, while downstream end-users have not increased their purchases. Traders are pessimistic, and it is still difficult to sell at low prices, with difficult transactions. In terms of imports, both domestic and foreign trade prices have fallen rapidly recently, and the price of imported coal has fallen faster, still maintaining a cost-effective advantage [8] - Supply and Demand Logic: Recently, pessimistic sentiment has spread in the market, and coal prices have fluctuated. In the long term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non-power coal [8] - Strategy: No specific strategy is provided [8]