贵金属日报-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's dovish interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion operation in this meeting supported the prices of gold and silver, but the precious metal prices have already fully reflected the expectation of loose monetary policy. The silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase, and short - cycle hourly technical pattern breakouts may indicate short - term peaks for silver. It is recommended to take profits at an appropriate time, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 940 - 989 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 13232 - 14500 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.12% to 954.76 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.78% to 14166.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4255.20 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 62.20 dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.13%, and the US dollar index was 98.57 [2] 3.2 Fed Meeting Analysis - Internal Disagreements: The hawkish degree of the Fed officials' voting results was lower than market expectations, with only Goolsbee and Schmidt voting against the rate cut. Trump - affiliated Milan still supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut [2] - Balance - Sheet Expansion: After stopping QT in early December, the Fed started balance - sheet expansion, limiting the scope to short - term US Treasury bonds and interest - bearing Treasury bonds within 3 years to ease liquidity issues, with the first - month bond - purchasing scale being 40 billion dollars [2] - Powell's Stance: Powell's statements on inflation and employment were dovish. He believed that without new tariffs, commodity inflation would peak in the first quarter of next year, and service - sector inflation was declining. Regarding the job market, he thought the labor market slowdown continued and employment figures were overestimated. His view on the subsequent interest - rate policy path was "wait - and - see" [2][3] - Dot Plot: The neutral interest rate in 2026 shown in the dot plot was the same as in September, with only one 25 - basis - point rate cut priced in for next year. A more aggressive rate - cut forecast (2.00 - 2.25% next year) was likely from Director Milan. A new dot plot will be released at the March 18th meeting [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase. Pay attention to the resistance level of 14500 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver. It is recommended to take profits at an appropriate time. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 989 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 13232 - 14500 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.4 Data Summary - Gold: For COMEX gold on December 10, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4258.30 dollars/ounce (up 0.51% from the previous day), the trading volume was 180,500 lots (up 3.51%), the position was 450,400 lots (down 1.47%), and the inventory was 1123 tons (up 0.03%). For Shanghai gold, the closing price of the active contract was 956.40 yuan/gram (up 0.51%), the trading volume was 277,600 lots (down 4.89%), the position was 327,500 lots (down 0.52%), and the inventory was 91.30 tons (unchanged) [5] - Silver: For COMEX silver on December 10, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 62.20 dollars/ounce (up 1.70% from the previous day), the trading volume was 155,300 lots (down 1.85%), the position was 155,300 lots (down 1.85%), and the inventory was 14,196 tons (up 0.13%). For Shanghai silver, the closing price of the active contract was 14,373.00 yuan/kilogram (up 5.63%), the trading volume was 2,849,600 lots (up 39.08%), the position was 809,800 lots (up 5.08%), and the inventory was 741.85 tons (up 3.35%) [5] 3.5 Price Difference Analysis - Gold: On December 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was - 11.22 yuan/gram (- 49.41 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 5.40 yuan/gram (- 23.80 dollars/ounce) [51] - Silver: On December 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 355.34 yuan/kilogram (1.57 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 363.80 yuan/kilogram (1.60 dollars/ounce) [51][57]