12月FOMC：如期降息并启动扩表

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%[2] - The decision faced opposition from three members, with one advocating for a 50 basis point cut[2] - The Fed initiated Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) with an initial purchase of $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities[3] Economic Outlook - The Fed's dot plot indicates one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, maintaining a cautious stance[4] - Economic growth forecasts for Q4 2025 were raised by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, with 2026 and 2027 forecasts increased to 2.3% and 2.0% respectively[6] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for Q4 2025 and 2026 were lowered to 3.0% and 2.5% respectively[6] Market Reactions - Financial markets reacted positively, with stock indices rising by 0.8%-0.9% and the dollar index falling by 0.2% to 98.6[2] - The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased by 3 basis points and 2 basis points, respectively[2] Employment and Inflation Insights - Powell indicated that job gains have been overestimated, suggesting a potential monthly net decrease of 20,000 jobs since April[5] - Service inflation is slowing, while goods inflation remains affected by tariffs, with expectations of a peak impact in Q1 next year[5] Future Projections - The Fed is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach in the first half of 2026, with potential rate cuts of 1-2 times after June[7] - The overall sentiment remains dovish, with a focus on upcoming employment and inflation data before making further decisions[4]