豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹，豆一：震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that due to the rise in US soybean prices, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures may follow and rebound. However, the US Department of Agriculture's forecast for US soybean exports in the 2025/26 season may be too high because the Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: DCE soybean No.1 2601 closed at 4,161 yuan/ton during the day session, up 75 yuan (+1.84%), and 4,159 yuan at night, up 36 yuan (+0.87%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2,754 yuan/ton during the day session, down 17 yuan (-0.61%), and 2,748 yuan at night, down 2 yuan (-0.07%); CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1,092 cents/bushel, up 4.25 cents (+0.39%); CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at $300.9/short ton, down $0.5 (-0.17%) [2]. - Spot: In Shandong, the soybean meal price was stable to up 30 yuan/ton, ranging from 3,020 - 3,070 yuan/ton; in East China, it was up 20 - 30 yuan/ton, ranging from 3,020 - 3,080 yuan/ton; in South China, it was up 10 - 60 yuan/ton, ranging from 3,030 - 3,150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Main Industry Data - The previous trading day's soybean meal inventory was 104.55 tons, compared with 107.34 tons two trading days ago. The previous week's trading volume was 19.77 tons [2]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On December 10, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher. Private exporters sold 13.6 tons of soybeans to China and 11.9 tons and 21.2 tons to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2025/26 season. However, some analysts believe the USDA's forecast for US soybean exports in the 2025/26 season (44.5 million tons) is too high due to the upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest [4]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, indicating the price volatility of the main - contract futures on the reporting day [4].