铅锌日评20251211：沪铅震荡偏强；沪锌或有反弹-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead price may fluctuate strongly due to tightened raw material supply and reduced pressure on non - ferrous metals from the Fed's dovish rate cut. The trading strategy is to try to go long at low prices [1]. - The zinc price may rebound in the short - term due to the Fed's dovish rate cut, but the poor demand will limit the upside. The trading strategy is to focus on short - selling opportunities when the price rises and then corrects [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Price Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,975.00 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [1]. - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,115.00 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [1]. - The Shanghai lead basis was - 140.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan [1]. Market Conditions - The daily recycling volume of most northern recycling enterprises decreased significantly compared with the same period last year due to lower lead prices and the off - season of battery scrapping [1]. - The开工 of primary lead and some secondary lead smelters declined. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries weakened, while the automobile battery market was approaching the traditional replacement peak season [1]. Zinc Market Price Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 23,000.00 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [1]. - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 23,075.00 yuan/ton, up 0.02% [1]. - The Shanghai zinc basis was - 75.00 yuan/ton, down 125.00 yuan [1]. Market Conditions - In September 2025, Bolivia's zinc concentrate production was 43,100 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to September, the total production was 376,300 metal tons [1]. - In September 2025, Peru exported 148,600 physical tons of zinc concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 22%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 1,581,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [1]. - In October 2025, Chile exported 1300 tons of zinc concentrate. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 50,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [1]. - The domestic zinc concentrate supply was tight, processing fees were continuously reduced, the smelter production reduction range expanded, and the demand was weak [1].