新能源及有色金属日报：议息会议及交割日后铜价或略有回落-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Option: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the interest - rate meeting and the delivery date, copper prices may decline slightly. Currently, downstream consumption is relatively poor, and there is significant wait - and - see sentiment in the industry chain. Therefore, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 10, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 91,400 yuan/ton and closed at 91,850 yuan/ton, a 0.83% increase from the previous trading day's closing price. The night - session main contract opened at 92,250 yuan/ton and closed at 91,770 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price range of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was a discount of 40 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 30 yuan/ton, a 65 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 91,510 to 91,890 yuan/ton. Due to approaching the 2512 contract delivery, concentrated shipments by holders led to a rapid decline in spot premiums. It is expected that spot trading will continue to be under pressure, and premiums may remain slightly discounted [2] Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75%. It is the third rate cut this year. The Fed will start a monthly purchase program of about $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds from December 12. Fed Chairman Powell said inflation is still high, but non - tariff - driven core inflation has improved significantly. President Trump criticized the Fed for the insufficient rate - cut amplitude [3] Mining End - On December 10, Aterian signed a binding joint - venture agreement with Lithosquare. They will launch an AI - driven exploration plan in 8 copper projects. Lithosquare will invest €1.4 million. If exploration is successful, it can increase its stake [4] Smelting and Import - As of December 8, the number of resource recycling enterprises using "reverse invoicing" reached 14,800, and the "reverse invoicing" amount this year is nearly 900 billion yuan. The resource recycling system in China is becoming more complete. From January to October 2025, the domestic recycling of scrapped cars increased by over 50% year - on - year, and the output of recycled resources from large - scale equipment was close to the 2024 annual output [5] Consumption - In November 2025, the domestic copper tube production was 138,300 tons, a 13.55% increase from October. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 59.69%, a 7.12% increase. The increase in production was due to more effective production days and market demand from e - commerce promotions and project deliveries [6][7] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,125 tons to 164,975 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 600 tons to 28,931 tons. On December 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 160,300 tons, a change of 1,400 tons from the previous week [7] Copper Price and Basis Data | Project | 2025 - 12 - 11 | 2025 - 12 - 10 | 2025 - 12 - 04 | 2025 - 11 - 11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (premium/discount) - SMM: 1 copper | 30 | 95 | 140 | 55 | | Premium copper | 80 | 160 | 210 | 115 | | Flat - water copper | - 10 | 45 | 85 | 10 | | Wet - process copper | - 50 | - 15 | 0 | - 50 | | Yangshan premium | 48 | 46 | 48 | 43 | | LME (0 - 3) | 0 | 8 | 69 | - 18 | | Inventory - LME | 164,975 | 165,675 | 162,150 | 136,275 | | Inventory - SHFE | 88,905 | - | 97,930 | - | | Inventory - COMEX | 401,925 | 398,717 | 391,848 | 335,086 | | Warehouse receipt - SHFE warehouse receipt | 28,931 | 29,531 | 28,969 | 43,789 | | LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio | 38.09% | 38.39% | 3.89% | 8.60% | | CU2603 - CU2512 (continuous three - near - term) | 130 | - | 190 | 80 | | CU2602 - CU2512 (main - near - term) | 70 | - | 80 | 60 | | CU2602/AL2602 | 4.19 | 4.18 | 4.07 | 3.98 | | Arbitrage - CU2602/ZN2602 | 3.98 | 3.95 | 3.92 | 3.81 | | Import profit | - 946 | - 1078 | - 1433 | - 585 | | Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) | 7.94 | 7.96 | 7.98 | 8.04 | [26][27][28][29]