市场需求逐步好转，12月下半月运价逐步修正

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market demand is gradually improving, and freight rates are being gradually corrected in the second half of December. There is a high probability that Maersk's prices will rise in the first week of January, and attention should be paid to the time when freight rates peak. The 12 - month contract is expected to have a delivery settlement price between 1600 - 1700 points. The 2 - month contract is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward [1][4][5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of December 10, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 61,800 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 40,741 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1665.20, 1080.70, 1225.60, 1378.90, 1025.00, and 1655.10 respectively [8]. 2. Spot Prices - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on December 5 was 1400 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1550 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2315 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on December 8 was 1509.10 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 960.51 points [8]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 4 - week average monthly capacity was 314,700 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 were 334,500, 289,600, 315,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively. In January, the average monthly capacity was 331,700 TEU, and in February, it was 262,900 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in December (1 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance), and 4 TBNs in January, all from the OA Alliance. Maersk added a new sailing ship, MAERSK EINDHOVEN (13,092 TEU), in week 51. As of December 7, 2025, 245 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.99 million TEU [3][8]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched the Cape of Good Hope network due to the continuous turmoil in the Red Sea. There is no specific time to change the east - west routes of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea. The CMA FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) will fully resume operation in January 2026, and the FAL3 route has started a single trial run [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - Information from various surveys shows that the cargo volume is gradually recovering. The delivery settlement price of the 12 - month contract is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15, 22, and 29. The 2 - month contract's delivery settlement price basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the duration of the shipping companies' contract price - holding is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the 2 - month contract may be at parity with the 12 - month contract [4][6].