燃料油日报：科威特低硫油出口仍未恢复-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the crude oil market has been blocked and then turned down again, indicating that the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. The cost side will continue to suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil, and both FU and LU will operate in a weak and volatile manner [2]. - The current overall market contradictions in the fuel oil market are limited. The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil is in the adjustment stage, and the crack spread has dropped significantly from the high level. With the release of increased supply in the Middle East, the market needs an increase in refinery demand to offset it. After the price ratio drops, its economic efficiency begins to gradually emerge, which will form a certain support at the bottom. However, currently, the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, the floating storage volume is high, and the surplus needs to be digested [2]. - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, the overall supply is not in short supply, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance time of the Azur refinery, the shipping and delivery volume of Kuwait tracked since November has still been zero. The two CDU units of Azur are expected to restart in the middle and late of this month. In addition, the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery has been under maintenance since December 8 (planned maintenance, expected to last until January 26), and the export of low-sulfur fuel oil from Nigeria may increase again during the maintenance period. As of now, the shipping volume of low-sulfur oil from Nigeria in December is zero. Looking forward, the short-term trend of the high-low sulfur spread is slightly bullish, but the upside space is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.65% at 2,427 yuan/ton in the day session; the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.17% at 3,009 yuan/ton [1]. 4. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 5. Figures - The report includes figures showing various fuel oil prices and trading volumes, such as Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, etc. [4]