甲醇日报：港口库存再度回落，基差走强-20251211

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The port inventory continued to decline, and the port basis strengthened. The reasons are delayed unloading and the flow back to the inland, but the arrival pressure in December is still high. The winter maintenance of Iranian plants has been implemented, but it will take time for the decline in future arrivals. Attention should be paid to the MTO maintenance plan of Ningbo Fude and the shipment volume from Iran. The continuous decline in coking coal and thermal coal prices has dragged down the coal - chemical sector [2]. - In the inland, the coal - based methanol production start - up rate is still higher than the same period. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Yangmei MTO, the low - load operation of Luxi MTO, and the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The start - up rate of traditional downstream industries has slightly increased, with acetic acid at a low level, formaldehyde slightly rebounding in the off - season, and MTBE at a high level [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are provided to show the methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as MA2605 - MA2609) [6][19] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import price differences between different regions (such as Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [24][25] 3. Methanol Start - up Rate, Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, the start - up rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of methanol production in China are presented [32][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - The price differences between different regions are provided, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc. [36][44] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan are shown [45][53] Market Data - Inland Data: The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton, and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 575 yuan/ton. The prices and basis of methanol in different regions in the inland are given, along with the factory inventory and pending orders in the inland and the northwest [1]. - Port Data: The price of methanol in Taicang is 2078 yuan/ton, and the basis is 25 yuan/ton. The port inventory has decreased, and the downstream MTO start - up rate is 90.82%. The price differences between different regions are also provided [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy is provided [3]. - Inter - period: Expand the price difference between MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low [3]. - Cross - variety: Shrink the cross - variety price difference between LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [3].