现货压力持续释放，豆粕延续震荡

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal has not changed. With high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal, and no sudden news to stimulate the market, the overall price of soybean meal is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] - For corn, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but recently, farmers' reluctance to sell has led to a relatively tight effective supply. As the price reaches a relatively high level and holidays approach, the grain - selling progress is expected to accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises have rigid demand, while traders are willing to store high - quality grain [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Meal - Market News and Key Data: - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2754 yuan/ton, a change of - 9 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2329 yuan/ton, a change of + 12 yuan/ton (+ 0.52%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the spot price of soybean meal was 3060 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 3030 yuan/ton, a change of + 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2540 yuan/ton, a change of + 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - US Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report: The estimated soybean production in the US for the 2025/26 season is 4.253 billion bushels, the sown area is 81.1 million acres, the harvested area is 80.3 million acres, the yield per acre is 53 bushels, the export volume is 1.635 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 290 million bushels. Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in December will be 3.33 million tons and soybean meal exports will be 1.83 million tons [2] - Market Analysis: The current supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation. The price of soybean meal is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] Corn - Market News and Key Data: - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2241 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton (+ 0.22%) from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2532 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.40%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] - US Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report: The estimated corn production in the US for the 2025/26 season is 16.752 billion bushels, the sown area is 98.7 million acres, the harvested area is 90 million acres, the yield per acre is 186 bushels, the export volume is 3.2 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 2.029 billion bushels [4] - Market Analysis: In China, on the supply side, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has led to tight supply. As the price rises and holidays approach, the grain - selling progress may accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises have rigid demand, while traders are willing to store high - quality grain [5][6]