美联储12月货币政策会议点评与展望：美联储从“主动宽松”进入“被动观察”，明年6月前可能暂停降息

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting December 12 to maintain adequate reserve levels[7] - The decision to lower rates was supported by signs of a weakening labor market, with private sector employment unexpectedly decreasing by 32,000 in November, the largest drop since March 2023[6] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of one rate cut next year, with inflation projected to slow to around 2.4% by year-end[3] - GDP growth forecasts were raised, with the largest increase of 0.5 percentage points for next year, while unemployment rate expectations were slightly lowered by 0.1 percentage points for 2027[3] - Core PCE inflation is expected to remain above 2.3% in the first half of 2026, influenced by high tariffs and other economic factors[10] Group 3: Internal Disagreements - There were notable dissenting votes during the rate decision, with three members opposing the cut, reflecting internal divisions on inflation and employment risks[2] - The dot plot revealed significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate paths, indicating ongoing disagreements within the Fed[9] - The Fed's statement included new language suggesting a higher threshold for future rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach moving forward[9]